Tuesday, November 13, 2007

Sold Out of MVIS Today

I sold my other half right at the close. My reasoning? Well, my account is at breakeven for the year. It has been a year of colossal blunders and bad luck. The slow drip of MVIS, amidst the realization that I will probably not have a profitable year, became like the slow drip of a leaky showerhead. You can live with it for so long, but then in the middle of the night, you wake up to the dlop, dlop, dlop, and you jump out of bed and rip the whole contraption out of the wall.

But before all that, I decided to buy some QID. Then I bought some more. And then some more. You see, I had written that the Nasdaq would likely bounce today, for several reasons. So I was not shocked to see the futures in the a.m. and then the gap-up. Why I didn't buy some QLD at that moment, I'll never know. See, I've been buying a block of QLD near the low of the day, almost everyday for the past four, and then getting stopped out when it surpasses the low. I definitely wanted to be long it for this bounce. So the day the bounce comes, I don't buy it. What the hell? And then, to load up on QID?

One thing that I feel confident about is that there is always another leg down. Look at any correction. There is always another leg. Now, the second leg may not make new lows, but it generally heads back towards the previous low. I know this, so I wanted to get some QID. Actually, I want to have a lot of QID for the second leg. Anyway, where my patience went, I'll never know. It would have been good to get a block of it at the close. However, I bought some near the open. Again, WTF?

Yes, I'm bearish here. Therefore, I've been looking for weak stocks to short. On the strength today I shorted EMN and GES. I've also got a small short in GT. Due to the tech strength, I had the good sense to cover my AKAM short this a.m.

Whatever. This has been a terrible year, and If I continue to screw things up, then I am going to quit trading for some time, re-group, and start over.

19 comments:

newequity said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Ticonderoga said...

Shed-
Please stop shorting the market. And stop with the stops (I know that makes little sense). Go long always (this is a bull market, things are still historically inexpensive), and only hedge to 50% when the going gets tough. This was in real volitility, you stay about even. Stop trying to make a killing in a Bear market, until you know the market is completely broken.

I hate seeing your pain, and love the site.

Jenn said...

i'm sorry to hear that it's been a terrible year of trading for you.. i recommend that you try going to this site http://hototc.com

they offer GREAT picks there.. out of all the newsletters i subscribed to, i receive my best picks from them. i hope this helps~

newequity said...

jenn,
FUCK U.

Shed,
Watch E-trade and buy some if it drops back below $4.

JakeGint said...

Shed,

Hang onto those short positions.

They ain't seen nuttin' yet.

Goldman had a good announcement today: "We will be banking coin off our stupid brethren in the XBD and the BKX, who will be in for a session of water boarding, presently."

And the BKX goes up as a result.

Watch 100 there.

JakeGint said...

Also, why are you posting on Fly.... isn't that cannibalization of TWW?

idlesin said...

Sorry it has been sucha craptacular year for you Wood. Newequity is correct though. It will get better. I lost my little all (46k) in '02. Took a break, remodeled my house then built 3 houses w/ a friend & finally got back into trading in '05. I have recouped all my losses & the account is up to 97k today. I'm sure your losses this year hurt, but it could have been much worse.

WFIW - You do trade too much. You also pull the sell trigger too quickly on trades that don't go your way immediately. I think your TA is solid, but you seem to lack conviction in yourself. Sometimes you have to let your winners develop & ride them up (HANS comes to mind). To be fair, I've held onto more than a few losers too long & paid that price.

I really enjoy your writing. Hang in there & good luck going forward.

Woodshedder said...

Thanks for the kind comments everyone. Your feedback is helpful.
Of course I am overtrading, I am selling too early, and it is stupid to short a bull market.

I've taken the day off from work today, and I will likely clear out all my positions and sit in cash until I get some things straightened out.

ShortDaBull said...

Wood, why don't you change up your strategy and not base so much on technicals?

Buy companies which you like. Sell parts of your holdings on the way up.

Look at MVIS, that ended up being a huge % gainer for you at one point.

Put $10k to $15k per position, on 6-10 stocks you like that have pulled back here.

Use the 2x inverse ETFs (I'm long QID, DXD & SKF) when things get shady like now but keep your core long positions on. Use margin to buy the inverse ETFs if you have to.

Don't take off the ETFs till things stop being shady or we get a panic bottom or a double bottom. You won't end up over trading because you'll be hedged.

If you pick the right stocks, your long positions should go higher than inverse ETFs go down on up days. And maybe the ETFs will go higher than your longs go down on down days.

There's a few deals out there right know I think, but I wouldn't want to buy without being hedged.

Either way, I think in the long run you'll end up fine. You seem to like trading and that's more important than anything.

ShortDaBull said...
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Anonymous said...

wood why is your return at 22 percent if your at zero for the year.

Woodshedder said...

Anon- I started using stockalicious within a day or so of the lowest account value for the year. So I've come up 22% off the low.

Anyway, I hope that next year it starts over. It is confusing.

IIO said...

Don't give up. Remember that investing, like life, is mostly mental. Your doubts and fears are your worst enemy. They creep into your thoughts and actions undetected and bring you nothing but pain. If things aren't working out no matter how much effort you seem to put in, then re-evaluate the route you've chosen. Be open to entirely new avenues. Think outside your box. Sometimes we get focused on trying to force things to work and conform to our existing thoughts and beliefs, that we close ourselves off to exploring new alternatives.

ainkurn said...

you should take a look at SPN for a potential short.

newequity said...

I feel your pain woody, not only are we both under performing the pos S&P but the pos USD is down 10%+ against the Euro for the year. Fuck Bernanke and his printing machine.

mdawsz said...

Chin up woodshedder, things aren't that bad. So you're even on the year, not so bad man, could be a lot worse. Maybe trade some smaller size positions for shits until you get your confidence back. You're always good a protecting your downside, keep using it to your advantage.

Anonymous said...

Sorry to see you bailed on MVIS, of course it starts moving up as soon as you did that. I've had times when every move I would make was the wrong one. It's a humbling experience but things will turn around.

As for MVIS; I believe in the technology and the management, I believe it will be my biggest gainer in 08. Good Luck.

Sierra Water said...

White Squall is coming.

http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idUKN1530870020071115?rpc=44

"And we are fielding calls from people who are now asking what types of securities are in these funds and saying they want to move," he said about his clients, who are among millions of Americans with $3 trillion invested in short-term money market funds."

Jeff said...

I feel your pain.

Good blog:)

Jeff