Monday, April 30, 2007

Evening Wrap Up


Believe it or not, I'm still up for the year.

Today was a good day to have tight stops. I did, and every one of the them got punched. That is fine with me. My core positions, MVIS, STKL, and to some extent GIGM all held up well today.

As mentioned in the previous message, I am going to be using every available second to start on my quest to develop a system to trade. With permission from some well-known authors (which I have yet to receive) I will be starting this system quest by posting my objectives. This could be some boring stuff, or it may help you become better tuned to your own objectives. All in all, I hope to detail, from start to finish, my quest to develop a profitable system to trade my beliefs and psychology.

Sold XING and VCLK

My stop was hit on XING. I sold 500 shares at $16.88. I lost almost a full point on this trade.

I also sold VCLK after buying it this morning. I sold 200 shares at $29.27 for a small loss. This stock started out gangbusters, but is really selling off throughout the day. The candle that is forming is really ugly, and may bring out the sellers tomorrow should it continue to trade down and close weak.

***Update*** Stop hit on SWHC, selling 500 @ 13.70

Good Morning World

This morning I bought 200 shares of VCLK @ $28.84 This trade is a 20-Day Play. Check my 20-Day Play label to find out what I am looking for in this entry set-up.

This morning, everything on my screen is red. MVIS is down another 3%. I'm wondering if some sort of news hasn't leaked on Microvision. It certainly has been trading as if it wants to go back to the 3's. Six down days in a row is certainly not a pattern that makes one feel comfortable in his gut. I hope today forms a nice bullish hammer, showing strong support at $4.00

I am slowly paring down positions, and have not been doing much research at home. This is for a number of reasons. Mainly, the "Sell in May" effect is nothing to sneeze at, but secondarily, I've been so busy at work and home that I simply have not had time. Couple these factors with the fact that I'm not beating the indexes this year and it feels like the right time to slow down.

The final factor that is taking up my time is that I'm in the beginning stages of system development. My life has gotten so busy that I feel it is foolish to continue trying to short-term discretionary trade. I am going to be purchasing some software that will let me backtest some medium and long term ideas over different markets. I have a feeling this is going to be a long but rewarding process, so I will probably go into trading hibernation while all this is being sorted out. I am excited about posting progress of my system development here, and hope that it will be interesting and rewarding to read about.

Friday, April 27, 2007

Evening Wrap Up


This loss is almost entirely due to MVIS continuing its slow bleed. Today the volume picked up some, so I have to be honest and say that 5 down days in a row on increasing volume has caused me a tad of concern. This pullback has cost me $3,780.00 in unrealized gains.

Today I established a position in NTRI- 200 shares at an average cost of 63.06

I also was stopped out of STP at 37.43 for a miniscule loss. I like STP, but did not repurchase, yet.

That's all for today. Work has been absolutely consuming my being, so I'm going home.

I know there have got to be some beautiful charts to examine over the weekend, and I hope to post them here.

Thursday, April 26, 2007

Evening Wrap Up


All in all, not a bad day. My profits would have been much higher had MVIS not continued to pullback.

I had some good swing trades that closed out today:
AAPL closed out for a 784.00 gain.
PMTI closed out for a 826.00 gain.

I also closed out ONNN, 1000 @ $10.36 just seconds before the close. This was a good move as the earnings report has the stock down in after hours, but the conference call is not until 5:00 p.m.

More later as time permits.

Sold AAPL and Half of PMTI

Sold 100 AAPL @ 101.835 and 100 PMTI @ 43.14

I will leave half of PMTI to run, with a trailing stop.

***Update*** My stop in PMTI hit, selling my final 100 shares @ 41.39

Also, I picked up 500 shares of SWHC @ $14.13 I wanted to get back in this under 13, but missed my chance so far. I think the pull back is done here, and am looking for a run to 15.

Good Morning World

PMTI up 2 points again in pre-market on a good earnings report. My thanks to Mdawzs at Get Short! for bringing this one to my attention from one of his bottom fishing screens.

AAPL is still holding strong in the pre-market. I'm trying to decide whether to dump my shares this morning or hold. It is important to be aware of the bias that makes one want to sell winners to early and dump losers too late. I am trying to hold winners longer, but alas, it is always tempting to take the money and run.

Keep your eyes on GIGM today. If volume starts to come into the stock, it may provide a good entry for a run to $15.50

ONNN reports earnings this evening. I will probably sell at least half my position before the report.

That is all for now.

Wednesday, April 25, 2007

Evening Wrap Up


Today was a really busy day in and out of the office. The only trade I had today that I did not write about was an increase in my XING by 200 shares @ $17.78

After hours, I see AAPL is up 7 points. That will make this the first profitable trade I've ever had on AAPL. I'd like to thank Rob for pointing out the setup. You know who you are.

Anyway, I've got to escape the office before more work is put on me. I'll get back to blogging some more this evening. I think there are some things I've realized about my ego and trading, and I'd like to share it with the blogosphere.

GIGM- Frank to Introduce Internet Gambling Bill

From an email I received:

This is an email from '' Message: Frank to Introduce US Online Gambling Bill Tomorrow According to Reuters News Service, House Financial Services Committee Chairman Barney Frank will introduce a bill this week to lift a ban on online gambling. "Why anyone thinks it is any of my business why some adult wants to gamble is absolutely beyond me," Frank told a community bankers group conference. Frank, a Massachusetts Democrat, said he will introduce the legislation on Thursday. Internet gambling in the United States was effectively banned last October when President George W. Bush signed legislation outlawing gaming financial transactions.

Good Morning World

Quick update:
Bought STP

All for now. Work is hellish again.

***Update*** Bought 500 more STKL @ 12.72

I have to leave the office now. Hopefully this means my positions will flourish without my influence.

Tuesday, April 24, 2007

Evening Wrap Up


Well today was demoralizing. I feel like nothing worked for me. Not only that, but I've lost about 6K in just over 1 week. That really sucks. I should have stuck to my guns when I sold everything last week and just took a break for a bit.

HANS looked terrible today. Everytime I buy it I lose money. I sold it at the close- 200 @ 38.91

I was stopped out of PMTI, 200 shares @ $37.73, and then it rallied into the close, so I bought them back at $38.13

I tried a scalp on VG, and ended up losing around 200 bucks.

Of course AAPL went down after I bought it, then flailed around while the back-dating options thing settled down, and then closed down afterall.

ONNN looks good, but closed beneath my second entry point.

XING was strong all day, then crapped into the close.

STKL is zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

GIGM is zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

The only bright light, or the only buy that went up after I bought it was SGEN, a speculative biotech play.

I don't know what else to say. I'm frustrated with my trading, and the only way I know how to make the bleeding stop is to sell everything again and take a break. However, I don't want to do that as I feel the Nasdaq is on the verge of breaking out. Basically, I'm a mess right now.

I should add that the stockalicious widget is a blast when I'm making money, but when I'm losing, its like getting kicked in the teeth.

Good Morning World

Bought 100 AAPL @ 93.99 on the open.

***Update*** Everytime I trade AAPL, I lose. Why should this time be any different?

*** Update*** 11:20 For some reason a sense of calm or reckless abandon has come over me. I'm not sure which one, but I like it! I will continue to buy here.

I picked up 500 SGEN @ 9.83 (speculative biotech) and doubled my position in ONNN, 500 @ 10.318

Monday, April 23, 2007

Some Semiconductor Plays For Tuesday

The stochastics on most of the semi charts I looked at tonight were overbought. I'm wondering with the TXN news out, if they can stay overbought for a while longer.

TXN Stirs Things Up in After-Hours

I'm not much of a fundamental analysis type (probably to a fault; I'm not bragging), but TXN's announcement in regards to semiconductors has pumped the stock up 3 points in after hours:

"We believe the inventory correction that began in the second half of last year largely ended in the first quarter," said Rich Templeton, TI president and CEO. "Orders are beginning to rebound, and we expect sequential growth to resume in the second quarter."

Futhermore, the semi stock I bought today, ONNN, is also up after-hours.

I'm anxious to see how this plays out in the Nasdaq tomorrow.

Evening Wrap Up

+101.00- which means the bleeding has stopped, for now anyways.

Today not much worked for me. Gains in MVIS, STKL, and GIGM were eaten up by small losses in PMTI, XING, and HANS. ONNN closed at my entry point.

As best as I can tell without all my Nasdaq volume information in yet, today was a healthy consolidation day on lower volume. As for my trading, I felt much more in control today. Over the weekend I did a lot of thinking about how much risk I am willing to take on in each position. Once I decide once and for all about my position sizing, I believe it will make me less emotional and less frantic.

Good Morning World

Just a few minutes ago, I picked up 200 PMTI @ $38.44 (Bottom Fishing Play)

I also bought 300 XING @ $17.84

On Friday, before the close I bought 500 GIGM @ $14.36 and 500 COGT @ $13.85

I also had a buy-stop trigger Friday on STKL, buying me 1000 @ $12.51

***Update*** Sold 500 COGT @ $13.50 The stock is being sold hard this morning. The Bollinger Bands hint at volatility coming- I don't want to be on the wrong side of it.

***Update*** Bought initial position of 100 HANS @ $40.00 This is breaking above resistance.

***Update*** Bought initial position of 500 ONNN @ $10.17


Microvision Secures New Contract to Develop Laser Projection Display for a Commercial Transportation Sector Customer

You Don't Know JAKK

JAKK features a setup that I've come to love: A challenge of a horizontal resistance line and 52 week highs. Any fan of Darvas will probably love this setup as well.

A stop below 24.50 will cost a point if it is hit, but is well out of the range of the ATR- currently running at .65 cents.

More aggressive traders looking to play any momenmtum tomorrow will probably want a stop around $25.10

XING- A Chart Offering Good Support / Stop Levels

I like this chart of XING. I see double support on this chart: The horizontal line at ~17 shows long term resistance being broken, with the recent dojis staying above the old resistance line. Also, the long term trendline rising from the Dec. 2006 lows will shortly be meeting the $17.00 level. I see the convergence of a rising trend line and a horizontal support line as "double" support.

I like this type of setup as it offers several areas to place stops, depending on the level of risk one wants to trade. Traders wanting to limit risk might have a chance to pick up shares just above 17.00 and set their stop just below it, while traders willing to start with a small position and take on more risk might consider a stop just below the area of $16.50

Saturday, April 21, 2007

Avoiding Recency Bias

As I continue to examine the factors that contributed to my less than stellar week in the markets, I keep coming back to one factor in particular. This factor is Recency Bias.

Recency bias is characterized by the tendency weigh recent data or experience more than earlier data or experience (Way of the Turtle, p. 16).

This bias in my trading was highlighted by Bill who posted this in the comments section:

Now, every once in a while you get a Feb 27th and the gap down keeps going down, and makes you look like an idiot for waiting, but the ODDS are, gap down, wait to sell.

Bill is exactly right. On Wednesday night, when I saw the Asian markets taking a beating, I began to assume that the U.S. markets would respond in a similar way as they did to the Shanghai index tanking February 27th. On Thursday morning my trading was biased towards more recent experience (February 27th). This recency bias on my part led to me assuming that instead of a gap-down and then recovery that the markets would gap down and then continue to fall throughout the day. Instead of using data from a large sample period to make my decisions, I made a decision which was influenced by a very small data set (2 months time). This was a costly mistake.

The best traders do not give recent events more weight than events of the past. Excellent traders who have mastered recency bias (and have learned how to profit from the knowledge that many other traders still suffer from this bias) bought the shares I was selling on Thursday morning.

As I begin trading again on Monday, I will not forget my over-weighing of recent events. However, I also will not dwell on my latest trading blunder, as that would give this most recent mistake more weight than mistakes I’ve made in the past, and could possibly endanger my psychological capital: confidence.

Friday, April 20, 2007

Thursday, April 19, 2007

Why I Played Today As I Did


There have been a lot of comments generated by this morning's post, and I think that is very healthy, as there were several ways to play today's action. Each way is not necessarily more correct than another; it is simply a matter of bias, psychology, and risk aversion. In order to flesh out what happened, I will detail the thought processes which led up to me dumping everything except for one position.

Yesterday evening left no time for research. I had T-ball practice, then an engagement which kept me out past Midnight. When I got home, the Nikkei was down over 400 points. I thought, "Well hell....Tomorrow is going to be another gap down." As I went to sleep, I was already mulling over whether or not I would maintain my positions through the gap-down, and hope to sell later in the day, hold them entirely, or dump them on the open or pre-market. I often find going to sleep with these types of thoughts means the next day will bring frantic and schizophrenic trading for me.

When I got to work this morning and got my computer turned on, I saw that SMSI had been downgraded. The day before I was up 1K on the position, and now I was down 150 bucks. Furthermore, the futures were responding just as I had imagined the night before- we were going to gap down on the open. I was able to get a good price in the pre-market for SMSI, selling 500 @ $18.90. This was a brilliant move, as SMSI closed in the low 16s. Now I had to focus on the rest of my positions. I asked myself, "What do you think the market will do today?" My feeling was that the Nasdaq would close down between 20-30 points, and would probably continue that fall for a couple more days to the 2450 level before finding support. Based on this assessment, I decided first to try and liquidate in the pre-market any position that was priced closed to my entry, or break-even. I placed my limit orders, and nothing triggered.

By 9:20 a.m., new fallout from the Tech Tragedy was filtering into my office, and I could see that today was going to be extremely busy. Knowing that I was likely to be wrapped up away from the computer all day, I had to make a decision in 10 minutes about the rest of my positions. I could set stop losses, but many of my stocks were set to gap lower than where I would have placed the stop. I did not want to set the stops much lower, as that looked like a setup to be stopped out at the LOD. This left only one option- set Limit Orders and hope for the best exit prices.

I started with DIVX, as it was set to open close to my breakeven price. I set a limit for 400 @ $22.75. It triggered immediately on the open and I was out of the position for a very small loss. I also set a limit order for COGT, 500 @ 13.75 (my breakeven), but it gapped lower and didn't fill. Limits set for SWHC and SIGM also did not fill due to the gap down. I did not set an order for STKL.

I then got pulled out of the office for a few minutes and was basically informed that I was going to be in a meeting for the next few hours or so. I had just enough time to get back to my office. When I pulled up my platform, the Nasdaq was down ~17 points. I pulled up charts for all of my positions. Everything looked to go lower. I sold COGT on the market, 500 @ 13.526, as it was only a 100 buck loss. Next, I looked at SWHC. It too looked to go lower so I marketed it, selling 500 @ $14.18, losing 200 bucks. That left SIGM, which had gapped down almost a dollar. I had only 200 shares, so I said the hell with it, and marketed the 200 shares @ 26.807, taking a 200 dollar hit.

I now have only 1 position left that I might want to sell, STKL. I really like the stock, the chart, the company, etc. so I didn't want to sell it, but I had 1500 shares, which meant I was loaded up. I was able to watch it for a minute or two, and decided to sell it all, as I had a small profit in the trade. I dumped all 1500 @ $12.21. In hindsight, I should have sold half, as that would have limited my risk enough for my tastes.

Keep in mind throughout all of this that there are people coming in and out of my office, the phone is ringing, etc. My stress level was through the roof, and as I said earlier, something had to give. My trading experience told me to wait for better exits. However, at the time, the Nasdaq had not started back to close the gap, and I did not know if I would have time today to trade at all. Furthermore, the day started off very much like February's crash day, and there were no guarantees that any dip-buyers would save the day. I had in my mind my profits, which although relatively small, would buy things for my family, for example this playground set my 5 year-old is dying for. Remember I spend all my profits every year; I do not compound gains. And most importantly, I knew I wouldn't be able to focus on crucial things at work with the possibility of my positions imploding around me. These were my thoughts as I decided to liquidate everything.

In conclusion, most every position closed the day a dime or two from where I sold them. Looking at my decision from this perspective, I did pretty well. Yes, I noticed several of the positions did offer better exits before retracing into the close. I figure in the best case scenario, at most I could have saved $500-$1000 by not selling at the open, but only if I was in the office to trade, which I wasn't. The worst case scenario could have found the Nasdaq down 1.5%, and my positions down a lot more than I lost selling at the open.

All in all the Nasdaq had a fairly healthy consolidation day on lower volume. There was no crash, no explosions, etc. Had I done nothing, I may have 500 bucks more in the account than I do now. However, the key to winning in the market is taking small losses. I took a lot of small losses today.

Thanks for reading, and I hope this helps others out there as they struggle with similar biases and issues of trading psychology.

Good Morning World

I sold everything this morning except for MVIS.

At least this time I used limit orders and was able to get out at decent prices. I have no doubt that this was not a smart move, and if had waited until later today, I could have gotten better prices.

If I did not have a full-time job, and did not have to trade from work, I would play this differently. I should be clear that the Virginia Tech tragedy affects the line of work I'm in. The amount of stress I've been experiencing at work recently has been huge. Couple this stress with the stress of running money, and I'm about at my limit. Something had to give, and so it was my account that paid the price. I've got to get my professional life straight before I be successful at trading in the near-term. I trust that those of you trying to trade while working understand where I'm coming from here.

The good news is that I'm still up about 5K for the year, which is enough to cash out and get my son the new playground set that he wants, and buy my wife various and sundry works of art and furniture for our new house.

I'll be back later today to update the Stockalicious widget and post prices for my sells.

Good luck out there today. May the market bring you what you are looking for.

Wednesday, April 18, 2007

Evening Wrap Up


Today there was a lot of disappointing action in SMSI, as it gave up almost all of its gains (-4.4%) from yesterday. I should have sold it, but I'm trying to let things run.

MVIS was my main source of pain, as it gave up 2.4%, but this is healthy and to be expected after a run-up.

SWHC and COGT finished close to my entry points, and SIGM crapped on me minutes after buying it.

STKL is still going sideways, on tiny volume. I'm assuming everyone is waiting for news.

DIVX regained some of its losses after gapping down this morning, showing strength most of the day.

All in all it was a bullish day, until the close, when the Nasdaq went south. I expect more of the same tomorrow. If I could have forseen the Nasdaq crapping into the close, I would not have purchased SWHC or COGT.

Block Buys - an Intraday Look

After reading Richard's article Misconceptions- Bullish Block Trades, I decided to start looking for block trades to examine. Richard's theory is that a block buy at the ask may not be entirely bullish in the near term, as the specialist will likely be short, having had to fill a large order. In order for the specialist to buy back his short position, he needs the price to go lower.

Today, while watching COGT, I witnessed a block trade, which many would say is bullish. The trade went through at the ask. Within 2 minutes, the stock starts selling off. The volume on the block was 108K shares. Once the stock bottomed, I counted the volume by the minute, on minutes that ended on a downtick. My volume count was 134K shares sold. Not an exact science, as obviously there were some buys in with the sells.

Seeing this action certainly does make one pause to consider Richard's theory.


I'm back in with a small position. 500 @ $14.62

This stock has shown strength throughout the day.

***Update*** Bought 200 SIGM @ $27.73

Good Morning World

I go into today with a ~40% cash position. It is really hard to guage where the indexes are going to trade from here. I have a lot of work to get done at work, so I am going to limit my trading until I get some work done and let the indexes keep giving indications as to whether the current rally is sustainable.

Last night I wasn't able to run any screens as my wife had me start re-painting a 23x12 room in our house. She didn't like the first color we chose. To tell the truth, I didn't like it much either. Fortunately, I was able to get a couple of setups from Downtown Trader and from Dogwood. I've added 2 stocks to my watch list today as potential longs. I've also added GES as a potential short.

So I am saying that I will attempt not to trade anything today unless I just see some money sitting in a corner waiting for me to pick it up.

A side note- GIGM looks to gap-down at the open, again. One thing I have no problem with is dumping stocks for a small loss before they become bigger losers. What I need to continue working on is letting winners run.

***Update*** Bought 500 COGT @ 13.74

Tuesday, April 17, 2007

Evening Wrap Up


Today I was guilty of making some terrible trades.

I let a gap-down in SWHC shake me out of a position. Then I re-bought some of the position and got shook out again. I never bothered to check a longterm chart during all of this. Had I done so, I would have seen a nice bounce close to the 20-day. All in all I should have never sold.

Similarly, I let a gap-down and some selling in GIGM shake me out of that position, and then I re-bought it as well. Then, at the close today, I closed out the position again, taking another loss of .08 cents. If I didn't feel good about it earlier, why did I buy it back?

It is strange how last night I was feeling like I needed to make sure I didn't overtrade today. It was as if I could feel it coming. I think maybe because I have had good profits that I'm starting to get too emotional. This past month I've been doing really well trading on technicals and keeping my emotions out of it as much as possible. I blew that today. Going into the morning I was worried about a pullback in the indexes. I let this worry snowball when I realized SWHC would gap-down.

It is crucial to remember when reacting to market events to be calm and emotionless, as much as possible. There is seldom an instance I can remember when a stock does not eventually offer a good exit or a good entry, even though in the heat of battle, it feels like the price wanted will never be attained. Most gaps get filled, and most spikes get sold. I have to remember that generally speaking, being patient will bring a better price for entry or exit than selling or buying because of fear or greed.

All that being said, my patience was rewarded by holding SMSI, which had a man-sized gain of 6.7%


GIGM is trading very strangely this morning, so I dumped all of mine, 1K @ 14.00 for a small loss.

SMSI, however, is on a tear, on no news that I can find.

***Update*** Sold 1K SWHC @ $14.35. I set limit orders trying to get out with a profit, but just had some bad luck. Oh well, this one just cost me commissions.

***Update*** Added 200 more DIVX @ $23.40

***Update*** Rebought GIGM 1000 @ $14.17 I am definitely over-trading today. I need to be careful here.

Good Morning World

Sometimes I am so stupid I amaze myself.

Yesterday, I never did make the connection between Smith and Wesson weakness and the Virginia Tech tragedy. It wasn't until this morning that I realized a massacre is not good for gun manufacturers. I tried to get out pre-market, but wasn't able. I ended up selling on the open, 1500 shares in the $14.30s. My breakeven was $14.53, so this is not horrible, but I'm still kicking myself for not making the connection yesterday.

GIGM had a huge dump on the open, but looks like it is trying to recover.

DIVX is running on news. I should have added yesterday.

STKL still trying to push past resistance in the $12.50s

Good trading to all today.

***Update*** Idiotic moves ahead- I just rebought 1k of SWHC @ 14.35

Monday, April 16, 2007

Evening Wrap Up


Another great day. The account traded over 112K for a while. It was very exciting to be able unload a little MVIS, although I feel confident it will trade higher.

SWHC was very disappointing today.

STKL looks great for tomorrow, and GIGM is still consolidating.

DIVX is moving again, although I did not increase my position, and SMSI is still digesting its previous run up.

Although I liquidated enough to make some new purchases tomorrow, I think instead of initiating a new position tomorrow that I will ride out what I have. Work is still crazy, and our home still needs tons of work, and I have made over 17K in about one month. It think it is time to take it easy, celebrate success, and not overtrade.


1k @ $5.46- I know nothing about the company, and it has traded pretty strangely today for a company reporting good news. Not to mention it is extended well above its averages. I'll take my 3% and move on to something I understand a little better.

Did anyone pick up AFSI after my post tonight? I didn't buy any this morning as I was in meetings, but it was up 6.5% last time I checked. That set up is money!!!

I am disappointed in how SWHC is trading today. I'm looking for it to close strong, or I'll be thinking of lightening up just a tad on my position.

***Update*** Wooohoooo I finally got to sell some MVIS. I sold 1K at $4.55. For any of you who have kept track of what I've been up to, there was a while when I thought my position in MVIS was going to be the death of me. But I hung on, and today reduced my position only because it had gotten to be 1/3rd of my overall portfolio. I am now left with 6K shares.

Holy Bull Market Batman

Wow- meetings all morning. Just got in, got my computer turned on, and things are looking grand today.

ARWR reported news. I guess that was what that trade was waiting for. Up 6.23% as I type.

MVIS looks like it wants to stay above 4.50

GIGM looking strong.

STKL is holding its gains.

SWHC holding gains.

DIVX is running again. Today might be the day to add to this position.

All in all, I couldn't be more pleased. I am swamped with work to catch up on, and glad to not have to worry too much about my positions today.

Where Do You Draw The Line?

This chart was posted over at Shenandoah Capital, and is labeled as Chart Evidence of the "Secular Bear Market"

Maybe it is just me, but I like the chart a lot better with my blue lines added. In fact, the blue lines show in 1995 the Dow broke out to inflation adjusted 65-year highs, then completed a successful test of that pivot point in 2002.

Sunday, April 15, 2007

Back To My Real Job

I go back to work tomorrow after 2 weeks off. I'm sure it will be crazy stressful trying to sort out what I've missed. I'm loaded up on several positions, and do not have much cash left to initiate anything new on Monday. It is probably better, considering the above circumstances, that I don't enter any new positions.

And so I was simply going to go to bed early tonight, get an early, well-rested start at work tomorrow. But first, I had to check the blogosphere. This was a bad idea, as I found Trading Goddess's post at Ragin' Cajun's place. The Goddess has posted some killer looking charts! Several of her charts have made me have to stay up late doing a little bit of research, and I may indeed buy a little something tomorrow. I am consistently amazed at TG's ability to dig up very attractive companies with beautiful charts. But then again, I should expect that from such an mmmm..... intelligent woman.

And then I received an email from a reader suggesting that I look at AFSI. I did take a look at it, and the stock features a chart with a setup that I've been trading a lot recently: A potential breakout above a flat resistance line. It is a pretty setup!

So no early bedtime for me tonight. That is okay, as it is good to be reminded how many stocks there are on any given day that show a good potential for quick profits. Keeping this reality in mind helps me not overtrade, and keeps me from trading sub-prime stocks and setups.

Mucho profits to all tomorrow.

Saturday, April 14, 2007

Doing My Numbers With Stockalicious

For the week, the account was up 1.5%, or $1,667.00.

Year to date, the account is up 6.5%

Although I've used the Stockalicious trading journal/portfolio tool for only 1 month, I've generated enough data for for their charts to begin illustrating some interesting information about my account. The first screenshot shows my account versus the indexes.

The next screen shot features a new tool Stockalicious has implemented. This tool, accessible from the "Trades" tab, allows the trader to enter trades with stop losses, and tracks R (risk) for each trade. This is a great new feature, and as always with Stockalicious, the interface is easy to use.

Although I used screenshots to save my readers the legwork, my portfolio is open to all. Just click on "Woodshedder" in the widget. Anyone at anytime can see what I'm trading, and check out the statistics I'm generating.

There are two other trading bloggers that I know of using the Stockalicious widget: Mdawsz over at Get Short, and Iio at Stock Logic. Stop by their blogs and check out their Stockalicious widgets to see how their trades are working out.

Friday, April 13, 2007

Evening Wrap Up

+$1,667 and this makes the first close over 110K YTD.

I went to get my hair cut this afternoon and missed the close, but it looks like MVIS had a strong finish.

SWHC was also a nice winner for me today, while STKL and GIGM took breathers. I look for those two to keep moving next week.

I sold my daytrade in AOI for a tiny loss. It did not trade as I thought it would. I am still holding ARWR, waiting for something to happen.

SMSI continues to consolidate, but it holding its gains well and will soon be poised to move again.

I will do a weekly wrap up later this evening or this weekend. All in all, it was another great week.

One Heck Of A Shake Out!

Here is an intraday chart of SWHC. It starts at the open. What interests me is the huge shakeout that happens at 10:43 a.m. The stock fell hard and fast, and then came strong off the bottom to make a swing of .70 cents. Thinking about the psychology that is taking place is very interesting. You have 2 sellers, short sellers, and those who think there is a failed breakout. When the stock rallies off of 14.53, the shorts rush in to cover, and the weak hands that sold rush to get back in. I find these kinds of moves very interesting to examine. Although I am way long this stock, I was able to remain detached, kept my convictions about my position, and very very glad to be still holding my shares.

Good Morning World

I started off the morning buying 1K of my old favorite, AOI. I'm looking for $10.50 as my target. I bought the shares for $10.04. I'm not adding it to the widget because I plan on selling it today, and its on margin, and the Stockalicious widget doesn't do margin.

Other than that, looks like a slow start to the Friday, except for STKL, which is seeing some volume and movement.

Thursday, April 12, 2007

Evening Wrap Up

+$1,472.00 and I believe the account has closed at a new high, YTD.

I got back from taking the mutts to the vet just in time to see some killer action at the close.

SWHC had a killer run, bouncing off 14 and never looking back. I added another 500 @ $14.85 about 15 minutes before the close. I now have 15oo shares, and am loaded up.

STKL is looking very strong, and I'm loaded up with 1500 shares on that issue as well.

I added another 500 GIGM today as well, bringing me up to 1k total. I am very happy with this GIGM trade as I waited until it found support before buying it back, and then doubled the position when the trade worked as I had planned.

I also picked up 1K of ARWR @ $5.26 as Broker A was pumping/whispering something about it. He's got a good track record for his "whispers." I have no idea of anything about the company. This trade is a complete dice roll trade based on someone else's recommendation. I don't even know what I'm supposed to be looking for. I'm just trying to keep it interesting for my readers.

Added More GIGM

500 @ 14.39

Volume is low on the stock this a.m., but it is moving. I will not be around to buy the afternoon, so I doubled my position now, believing it will close higher. It may be too early to add. However, almost every stock I watch has gone green, so I will spend some cash.

***Update*** The surge of buying is refreshing. I decided to join the party at DIVX with an initial position of 200 @ $22.34

Good Morning World

Reducing My Exposure- and I'm not talking about getting rid of my old boxer shorts which are riddled with holes. I'm talking about selling positions to allow me to weather anymore downside in this market. To that end, I sold 500 SMSI @ 18.85.

You see, when the bears start coming out of their caves growling and mumbling things like "secular bear market," it typically means they were late to the recent downside party, and will begin selling in earnest, the same time when the buyers step in. And once again, the bears will be wrong. However, the bears cannot always be wrong, and just in case this is their time to shine, I want to have raised lots of cash.

Although I did not look at any index charts last night, I do have a gut feeling that the recent downside action is simply alleviating an overbought condition. The indexes will find support here shortly, and the party for the longs will resume. Should this occur, I'll put my 40% cash to good use.

SWHC- after flirting with crashing through 14 this morning, SWHC has found a big buyer, and is zooming. I can't find any news on why it is moving.

GIGM, STKL, and MVIS are all catching bids. I have loaded up on STKL, and am looking for a big push sometime soon.

***Update*** In an effort to punk myself, I have rebought SMSI 500 @ 19.25. This is likely a diptarded move, along the lines of a revenge trade, but I couldn't stand to see the volume pouring into the stock without me being along for the ride. Did I buy the top? Stay tuned!

Wednesday, April 11, 2007

Evening Wrap Up


I bought 500 more STKL @ 12.29 just before the close.

Both stocks that I sold today performed stronger than the ones I held on to.

Trying Out GIGM, Again

500 @ 14.22

It traded awfully close to the 20 day. We'll see if it bounces from here.

Good Morning World

At 9:25 this morning I lose my internet connection. I look out in my side yard, and Comcast is out there burying cable. Good timing guys!

I get logged in finally to see my ITRI stop has been hit, selling 300 @ $66.92 This will probably be the LOD, as today just has that feeling about it, so far.

I've got to take a load of old sheetrock and boards and trash to the landfill today, and by the way things are going, it looks like the indexes may go to the dump today as well.

I'm really not feeling "it" today, so I will probably set some stops and just get more things done around the house.

***Update*** 10:23 I sold the rest of my position in CNMD (300 shares) @ $30.39

This puts me at 40% cash, which is a good place to be should the indexes feel a need to return to the mean.

Nasdaq Update

I recent post at Downtown Trader reminded me that I needed to take a look at the Nasdaq chart.

It is insane that I haven't really studied the chart in the last week or so. It was like coming back to a good book.

Surprisingly, the composite index closed above resistance today. Volume was not all that great, and the divergence between price and volume is in my estimation one of the most reliable indicators. However, I am pleasantly surprised at the strength the index is showing while hanging out so high above the 20 day moving average. If the companies reporting first in the new earnings season can keep from disappointing, I feel it is conceivable that the Nasdaq trades sideways for a bit, which would allow the moving averages to catch up without some serious retracement days.

Tuesday, April 10, 2007

A Look At AMAT

AMAT was upgraded today to buy from neutral by Banc of America Securities and was up 4.08% for the day.

Lets look at the charts.

The 1 year daily chart shows a nice breakout from a 6 month consolidation period.

It is always important to take a long-term view. The 3 year weekly chart shows a much different picture of AMAT. This stock is approaching resistance which has stopped its advance for the last 3 years. It surely makes me question how far today's breakout can move before it is stymied. Perhaps the new solar panel market is just what AMAT needs to push it to levels not seen in years.

While AMAT has been an extremely boring stock, a break of this long term resistance could signal a trend change, taking the stock out of a long consolidation and launching a new uptrend.

Finally, with Alcoa reporting good earnings, and AMAT challenging long-term resistance, it seems the market will continue its recent uptrend.

Evening Wrap Up


My parents just left. The heavy-duty home remodeling is done, leaving mainly painting type stuff to complete now. Look for the blog to get back to more activity.

Good Morning World

I bought an additional 500 STKL @ $12.20 These additional shares are not entered into the Stockalicious portfolio due to the fact that half of the purchase was on margin.

GIGM is trying to make a fool out of me for selling it yesterday. Oh well. The markets look strong, right out of the gates. Lets see if it can hold on throughout the day.

***Update*** 11:13 sold 200 TIE @ $36.91 for a loss of .31c per share. I'm tired of waiting on this stock to do something.

***Update*** 11.27 sold 300 CNMD (half my position) @ $30.79. I sold this because the stock is printing dojis on declining volume and has only been down 3 days of the past 19. This has been a very well-executed trade so far.

Some Charts to Ponder

Unfortunately I have not had any time to run screens to find my readers a new stock to make them rich. Fortunately, the stocks I've been long in the past few days are making me money.

Due to a lack of time to run new screens, I want to take a look at 2 charts of companies in which I'm long.

The first is STKL. I have made good money trading STKL in the past, buying low, and selling near resistance in the $11.00s. STKL has now decided to push past resistance and go for new highs. After making new highs, it has pulled back to revisit its pivot point at ~$11.75 This setup, the breakout and then pullback to revisit the pivot point is possibly my favorite setup. The chart shows a textbook pullback, with volume decreasing as an orderly bull flag is formed. I will look to double my position in STKL should it break the blue trendline above the flag. For an interesting look at some fundamental factors which may drive the price, take a look at posts over at The Daily Speculator.

The second is SMSI. Maybe one or two of you out there bought SMSI when I featured it as a 20-Day Play. If you did, I hope you are enjoying your profits. The chart looks like SMSI is trying to break free from the recent consolidation and continue upward. While the stock has made a huge move recently, it is still showing tremendous strength. While it is still not far from being overbought, I believe that this stock's strength cannot be underestimated.

Monday, April 9, 2007

Evening Wrap Up

+ $1341.00

Another great day. The account was actually up over 110K for a period of time before MVIS retraced its gap-up.

More later this evening.


Sold 500 GIGM @ 14.87. This is a loss of .13c per share. I sold because the candle it is printing today looks like a key reversal, and I don't see any support until 14.50 (10 day average) or 14.00 (20 day moving average). I still like this stock a lot. I should waited for the pullback to the averages before buying.

***Update*** 3:43 p.m. I bought 500 SMSI @ $19.46 with the proceeds from the GIGM sell and some more cash. I'm looking for a bounce from the 10 day moving avg. with this trade. It has consolidated gains from the big run-up and looks to move again.

VDSI Downgraded

Crud. Hate when that happens. I sold it at $18.255 for a small loss. I waited for the bounce, and it was so small of a bounce that I missed it. Oh well.

One thing that makes me angry is that Yahoo did not print news of the downgrade, so I missed the news, and missed a good opportunity to dump it in pre-market.

***Update*** I placed the cash from the VDSI sale into 100 more ITRI @ $66.75 This brings me up to 300 ITRI.

***Update*** My stop hit on PRFT. Sold 500 @ $22.75 This makes a 1000.00 gain in just several days. I'm very happy with this trade. The gap-up this morning may just be the start of a new run. If that turns out to be true, then I'll buy back in. If not, I've got good profits.

***Update*** I bought 500 more SWHC @ $14.44. Also, STKL is starting show signs of life, and may have just put in the bottom from the breakout pullback.

Good Morning World

I am thrilled to be the first ever to receive Trading Goddesses Award for Excellence! It seems that she is interested in having me post some more over at her house in the future, and believe me, I would like to spend some more time there!

As for today's action, the market is set to open higher, and almost every stock I own is up in the pre-market.

I still have a great deal of work to complete around the house: sheetrock replacement, trimming out a new doorway, and finishing work for a new hardwood floor I put down over the weekend. I will be watching things as much as possible and will try to squeeze in a post or two today before the close.

I'm glad my regular readers continue to stop by, even though my blogging has been less than spectacular lately. I promise that as my home repairs get finished, I'll be back to posting charts, setups, and market analysis.

Friday, April 6, 2007

Weekly Wrap Up

For the week, the account was up $4,270.00.

My parents are staying with me right now and are helping with some small renovations to our new home. It is all really cramping my style. I have time for nothing except working in the house and keeping my parents from driving my wife crazy. I had more time to watch my trades when I was at work. Seriously.

I had a really awesome week in the market. The fact that my best week YTD came when I had the least time to actually watch the market is not lost on me.

Thursday, April 5, 2007

Good Morning World

I sold QCOM this morning as it was definitely acting funny. 200 @ $43.03

I picked up 500 STKL @ $11.94

PRFT and SWHC are smokin'

I expect today to stay slow before the 3 day weekend. If I can even just not lose money today, I'll be satisfied, and will have had one helluva a week!

Now I am going back to tearing out an entire wall of our home.

***Update*** Picked up 200 ITRI @ $65.78

Why I Bought PRFT Yesterday

Ragin' Cajun from over at Madstocks left me a comment wondering what made me purchase PRFT yesterday literally minutes before it broke out. I have traded PRFT for several years, and follow the stock regularly, but it came up on a screen for stocks getting ready to make 52 weeks highs. Once I pulled the chart up, I noticed it had made a nice symmetrical triangle, and had undergone 2 months of consolidation. My trading plan was to give it 3 days to challenge the resistance formed at $21.00. Well it tackled that area first thing yesterday morning. Also note in PRFT's chart the volume drop during the consolidation, and see how it ramps up the last 2 days before the breakout.

You can see a lot of my purchases, TIE, QCOM, for example, are at areas of resistance. My hope in making these types of purchases is that they overcome the resistance area, which will give me a new area of support to guage stops, strength, etc.
Also note my posts a week or so ago on CNMD (look for the label) and notice that it has also broken out above resistance.

Wednesday, April 4, 2007

Evening Wrap Up


Another great day. PRFT was an outstanding winner, as well as man-sized gains in VDSI, CNMD, and MVIS.

QCOM lagged today, as well as SWHC.

At the close I picked up 200 TIE @ $37.22

I will hopefully soon get back to posting charts and writing something meaningful other than a recap of the day's action.

Good Morning World

Made a bunch of buys this morning. I know it is dumb to buy the open, but I have a ton of stuff to do today, and I just wanted back in.

QCOM 200 @ 43.95
VDSI 500 @ 19.01
PRFT 500 @ 20.81
SWHC 500 @ 14.25

Alright, I'm going back to sanding woodwork so it can be painted.

Tuesday, April 3, 2007

I'm Back

We are all moved in to our new home. Still lots of work to do. Comcast got my cable/phone/internet hooked up today about 2:00 p.m. I was able to see MVIS get over the 4 dollar mark.

Today was an impressive day for the longs. I am trying not to beat myself up, as everything I sold to be in cash while we moved has skyrocketed. Oh well.

Anyway, I want to run some screens and find a setup for tomorrow, so I'll keep this short.

As always, you can check out what my account is doing via the Stockalicious widget.

Oh yeah, I did buy 500 GIGM @ $14.99