Wednesday, February 28, 2007

Night Cap

Well, I'm still fresh out of inspiration for any sort of meaningful post. As the market begins to stabilize and trend again, I'm sure there will be many charts and stocks to write about.

If you are looking for some good insight and technical analysis covering the events of the last two days, you should go to Trader Mike or Broker A. And Stockbee has a good post to get you started thinking about selecting stocks to short.

For today's trade, I initiated a position in QID and bought 2K ONSM @ $2.98 I don't recommend going long, but I feel ONSM could have some big news soon, so it is sort of a gamble, and it is sitting above support. I'm also still holding LWAY, which I really, really like. However, they may not report earnings for another month, and therefore there may not be enough of a near-term catalyst to keep the stock from getting punished during future market weakness.

Tomorrow I will try to add more QID.

Finally, I think that when I feel like posting more TA, I'm going to start with looking at stocks to short from last Monday's (1/26) Investor's Business Daily 100. I remember in April and May of last year that several stocks on that list had huge declines on the weakness in the Spring and Summer.


Well I've been punked so far by Mother Market. That little head fake this morning should have been bought for some quick gains. Alas, I was in a meeting trying to save my office 1.8 million. Although my finger keeps reaching for the buy button, I am exercising restraint as I feel strongly that this is just a temporary bounce. Had I bought this morning, I'd be a seller here right now before lunch. Your mileage might vary.

I'm sticking with my previous assertion that we need more blood in the streets before it will be a good time to buy.

***Update*** Starting to hedge a bit with QID. Picked up 100 @ $54.79

Good Morning World

Sorry for no update yesterday. There was really nothing I could say that had not already been said by every other blogger, CNBC, etc. I covered all my shorts yesterday before the close. I did not make a killing on the shorts, but they did allow some mitigation of the damage caused by my longs gapping down in the morning.

This morning I'm still long MVIS and LWAY. I've got a 10:00 a.m. meeting, and then I'm going to check out things and consider buying back some stocks. I feel we might get a bounce today, but I'm concerned that the selling will continue later this week, so I don't want to be premature in my purchasing.

Of all the stocks I'm watching, GIGM is looking the strongest to get back into, followed by ONSM.

Good trading to everyone today.

***Update*** 9:50 a.m. The market is following through to the downside. I think this is healthy, and frankly, I'm glad to see it. We need blood in the streets, folks, and this morning's buying tells me that people aren't scared enough yet. When people start puking and crying, then we'll know we are getting closer. I don't short much when I'm working, so today I've low-balled some limit orders for longs just in case the bottom falls out again.

Tuesday, February 27, 2007

Short GES

200 @ 80.84

Lets take it back down a few points.

Sold Almost Every Position

After seeing what was going to happen this morning, I called in sick.

I dumped everything except for NIHD and LWAY on the open. It turned out to be a good move. I was able to use the cash to buy some stocks that were punished and make some money back. NIHD is still trying to crawl its way back. They picked a hell of a day to report.

As it stands, it looks like I will be down about 4K from yesterday, or about a 3.8% drop. That erases all my YTD gains and puts me YTD slightly in the negative.

One stock to note is GES. That sucker has climbed back almost 6.5 points.

Looks like this blog will start featuring more short setups.

NIHD 4th Quarter Profit Roughly Doubles

NII Holdings 4th-Quarter Profit Swells on New Subscriber Additions

RESTON, Va. (AP) -- NII Holdings Inc., a provider of Nextel cell phone service in Latin America, on Tuesday said fourth-quarter profit roughly doubled as the company hooked several hundred thousand new subscribers.

Net income mushroomed to $107.9 million, or 60 cents per share, from $49.4 million, or 29 cents per share, in the year-earlier period. Quarterly revenue increased to $671 million from $512.6 million -- up 31 percent year over year.

Analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial expected the company to earn 43 cents per share on $665.2 million in sales.

NII said it added 252,000 net subscribers in the latest quarter, a 25 percent jump from the prior year, while average monthly service revenue per client was flat at $59.

At year end, the company's subscriber base totaled 3.4 million, up 49 percent from the same time a year ago.

***Update*** After holding this with good profits before Citi's downgrade, and now subsequently being in the red, I'm looking for this to gap me back up into the black.

Monday, February 26, 2007

Late Morning Humor

Here is a picture illustrated by my 5 year old son of Abe Lincoln. I crack up everytime I look at it.

If the market goes green again today, it will remind me of some of you shorts, being all piggish and grotesque with bloody mouths from all the kicks you've taken over the past months.

Anyway, even if I get kicked today, I will pull this picture up and laugh and be reminded about how important my family is to me.

Morning Activity

Sold 100 CAT @ $67.45

I want to roll that money over into LWAY. I will make a post with a chart of LWAY at somepoint this week. Take a look at it!

Picked up 500 shares of LWAY @ $10.16. I'm maxxed out right now, and I do not typically use margin. I may be selling other stuff to make room for more of this.

Late Night Thoughts

After spending quite a while on Stockbee's excellent blog, I have begun an informal examination of some of my paradigms and mental models as they apply to my trading and stock selection. In short, what Stockbee details is that stocks that have monstrous high volume moves tend to continue to have similar moves over time. These are the types of stocks I want to be in.

However, over the past year I have become extremely wary of trying to jump on stocks that have had huge moves for fear of catching the correction rather than the next leg up. I need to explore why my mental models are making me avoid these stocks. I feel I need to more actively screen for these high volume movers, and develop a system for finding a low risk entry. When the data shows that these types of stocks continue to have huge moves, it is stupid to not get involved at some point. Using TA for an entry, coupled with the edge this particular anomaly can provide might just be the jumpstart my portfolio needs.

One example of a stock having had a high-volume, explosive event is PNTR. I think this chart shows the potential to combine 3 elements to get an edge.

1. PNTR had a high-volume, explosive move. The edge here is knowing that these moves tend to occur again.

2. PNTR is providing a low-risk entry in that the trend has changed from correction and retracement of the huge move to higher highs, and higher lows (accumulation). Buying at the bottom of the current channel and placing a stop just below the channel should provide a good entry before the next move up.

3. Momentum, momentum, momentum. The edge provided by the anomaly of momentum cannot be overstated. I feel strongly that the highs of the explosive move will act as a momentum magnet, effectively pulling the prices back towards previous highs.

Finally, I would appreciate hearing from anyone out there who has run some backtesting or tracked long-term performance on stocks after they have an explosive, high-volume move. My apologies to Pradeep Bonde if I have at all misunderstood or misrepresented his data.

Friday, February 23, 2007

Weekend Wrap-Up

$105,806.42- at today's close, a new YTD high (+3.3%).

That is nothing to write home about.

However, I decided last week that I was overtrading, and made a decision to slow things down. To aid in this, I loosened my stops, refocused on finding money setups, and generally just let all my positions ride, unless there was a clear technical reason to sell. Either by coincidence, serendipity, or pure luck, I made more money this week than any other week YTD.

For the day, I was thrilled with
GIGM +2.06%
MVIS +1.45%
ONSM +1.48%

I feel strongly that ONSM is going to 5 soon. Do yourself a favor and check out yesterday's conference call which is here. More of my analysis of ONSM can be found here. I believe that by the time this relationship with Cisco and Five Across gets fleshed out and a deal is inked in the social networking segment, it will be too late to get in at these prices.

Today's Trades

Sold 2000 CEGE @ $3.50 for a 500.00 loss. No big deal.

Bought 500 TRID @ $22.14 The Fly was also buying TRID. Before you haters start to lambast me for following Fly blindly, let me reassure you that TRID has a very pretty technical picture, and that is why I bought it.

Did I mention that those losers at Citigroup are either loading up for earnings, or are going to be sorry they downgraded NIHD right before earnings?

My meetings are done, so I'm heading home to Richmond.

***Update*** order filled for 1K ONSM @ $3.40


Citigroup downgrades NIHD from Buy to Hold. Those bastards! Two days before earnings! What do they know that the rest of us don't?

Thursday, February 22, 2007

MVIS- Technical Analysis

The Technical Picture Has Improved

MVIS has formed a large symmetrical triangle. The current bottom of this pattern is at 3.00 After the Business Week article and video brought exposure and volume to the stock, a gap-up occurred. However, the gap was filled on Wednesday. Today MVIS regained the 50-day moving average. Both the MACD and RSI have turned up. For the reasons above, I am increasingly more bullish on MVIS. Should the stock close above the upper line of the triangle, or $3.50, I would be willing to state that the short-term downtrend has been broken. In the meantime, MVIS will trade within the decreasing range of the triangle. With the CEO being clear about inking a deal with a major cell phone company by Summer, I suspect the break of the triangle will be to the upside.


Here is the PR. I hope it is good. I am not a "biotech guy." I mean I can read and all, but I don't understand all the complexities that go into the Phase 1, 2, & 3 results. I have held CEGE in anticipation of this news, so today is today. Unfortunately my meeting starts at 8:00 a.m. sharp and runs until 5:00. Hopefully we will get a break and I can run back up here to the room and check.

Wednesday, February 21, 2007

Let's Look At Charts

Great Chart! - AOI

I first profiled this stock January 12th. It has continued to climb since breaking out of a flag formation. I'm still not sure what the story is behind this company. I know they sell tobacco. If anyone cares to enlighten me, I would appreciate it. If you don't want to enlighten me, that's fine too. I'll keep riding it until the trend bends.

Big Cat- Big Trend Change

The 52 week high is 82, or 14 points higher than today's closing price. After breaking above the downtrend on volume, CAT gapped up on 7.5 billion stock buyback news. It has spent 3 days digesting the gap up, and now looks ready to charge ahead. A target price of 75 is halfway to the 52 week high from today's closing price, and an area of previous resistance.

Gambling on GIGM

Online gambling is still legal in other countries. Gigamedia is profiting from the surge in online gaming and gambling. The stock recently broke out of a cup with handle base on strong volume. While it is extended, I believe it will probably retrace and give another buy point around 13.00

ONSM- Time To Add to the Position?

ONSM reported earnings yesterday evening. My analysis shows that Q2 could be their first profitable quarter. The stock traded down today, but was strong nonetheless, as it found support at the 20-day. A bounce from these levels would keep the current uptrend intact. I feel strongly that any news re: CSCO, Five Across, and ONSM will send this through the roof.

NIHD- Can You Hear Me Now?
This company provides wireless communications services primarily in Latin America. They report earnings next week on Tuesday the 27th. This stock experienced a surge and retreated to bounce soundly from the 20-day. It looks as if it might attempt a new high tomorrow, and run into the ER.

Leaving For Philly

Based on this morning's action, I'm bullish on AOB and GIGM- both are holding up strong in the down draft.

CEGE looks to have finished its consolidation after a bounce from the 10 day simple moving average.

Wishing good profits to all of you while I'm driving.

Tuesday, February 20, 2007

Night Cap

Today's account value at the close = $105,531.54

That figure is a YTD high for my account, and is almost exactly a 2% gain. I think the miniscule gain is awful. I must continue defining and refining my system and rules.

Easy come, easy go. ONSM reported earnings, and while the numbers were decent, the interest charges made the YoY numbers look skimpy. It closed down 8% in after-hours on ~22K in volume. There goes my 2% YTD! Hard to say what the action will be like tomorrow, as without the interest expense, ONSM would have been close to having its first profitable quarter. I intend to hold my shares as I feel this stock will rocket on any news re: CSCO and 5 Across.

Today's Action-

LDSH, featured in The 20-Day Play, was up almost 3 points at the HOD, and managed to close up 4.82%

I had man-sized gains in GIGM (+8.01%) and AOB (+6.47).

Traveling for Business

I am leaving for Philly tomorrow a.m., but I will have my laptop and intend to update the blog and my positions from the hotel room.

Position Updates- GIGM & AOB

GIGM up 6% today on no news. The stock is breaking out of a long, cup-with-handle base.

AOB seems to have finished dipping below the 50 day and looks to regain traction as it will probably run into the earnings report. It is well known that 2007 will be a good year for AOB. I will not be surprised to see AOB test its 52 week high prior to earnings.

Sunday, February 18, 2007

The 20-Day Play

The 20-Day Play will be a regular feature of this blog. In order for a stock to make The 20-Day Play, it must trade above its 20 day simple moving average for at least 20 days, and then bounce on or near the 20 day simple moving average. (Please consider the words "The 20-Day Play" to be trademarked, 2007.)

First up is LDSH. This chart features a strong run-up and a pull back to the 20-day. Prior resistance highs from May and June of 2006 are meeting the 20 day and have become support.

Ladish Co., Inc. is a leading producer of highly engineered, technically advanced components for the jet engine, aerospace and general industrial markets.

The last earnings report for LDSH shows that the company almost doubled YoY diluted EPS.

Up next is KNXA.
KNXA's chart features a strong run-up and a pullback to the 20-day. The stock bounced firmly from support generated from the pivot-point at 35 and regained its footing to close above the moving average.

KNXA last reported earnings on Valentine's Day. It was a sweet report, although they guided FY07 Q1 on the weak side.

Friday, February 16, 2007

Will The Shorts Get Caught Pants Down?

It looks like the Naz is trying to close this morning's gap and go green. I doubt the shorts are ready for this possibility, it being Friday before a long weekend. I predict some fireworks should this happen.

Thursday, February 15, 2007

All Is Not Lost

Well I had a terrible day today. I think that when work gets hectic I make stupid trades. My account lost over $1400.00 from yesterday's closing level.

The good news is that when I got home and turned on the computer, I found that MVIS was up afterhours. It seems that Business Week has published a short blurb. You can read it here. There is really nothing new here; however, the exposure can't hurt. I certainly won't complain if MVIS opens up 10% tomorrow a.m.

I Am A Buffoon

Sold the 200 NTRI at $48.86 for about $225.00 loss. I got scared the shorts were going to try and fill up a few points of the gap.

I don't know how I've ever made money in the market. I am such a buffoon. It will probably turn out that I sold the LOD.

***Update*** 1:05 Buffoonery Confirmed. Not only did I buy NIHD at the exact HOD, and subsequently watched it lose 1.5 points, I indeed sold NTRI .10 cents shy of the LOD. I feel completely depressed now as my account, at one point today, was at the lowest levels of all year. That is completely unacceptable since the major averages are firing on all cylinders. I am going to have to consider ceasing all new trades until I figure out what the hell I'm doing wrong.

I'm All In

For the first time this year, I'm all in. No cash left, and I'm using about 2K of margin.

What does this mean for you? Well of course this means you should be moving off margin and to cash.

I'm bracing for the aching pain that is sure to come from me placing all these bets.

Did I Buy the HOD?

100 NIHD @ $74.252

***Update*** More Buffoonery

After my buy at the HOD for NIHD, I decided to roll the dice some more.
1000 AOB @ $12.12
100 CAT @ $68.17
100 NTRI @ $49.92
100 NTRI @ $50.13

Morning Update

Yesterday I made about 500 bucks. That really sucks compared to how the overall markets roared. I had some losses in ONSM and CEGE, and took a small loss in selling SIGA, and I got in GIGM too late to catch most of the run.

However, I sold CSX at the close yesterday @ $42.13 for a two day gain of 1100.00 or about 10%. Not too shabby.

I almost forgot NIHD which had a textbook bounce from the 20dsma and gained 4.37%.

Good luck out there today.

Wednesday, February 14, 2007

Bernake Update

Does this remark signal the beginning of the "Mother of All Short Covering Rallies?"

"So far, the incoming data have supported the view that the current stance of policy is likely to foster sustainable economic growth and a gradual ebbing of core inflation," Bernanke said in prepared testimony to the Senate Banking Committee in Washington."

***Update*** 1:07
Well the market is screaming but I'm not making bank because half of my positions that have been up a lot recently are down. But I'm still making some money, don't get me wrong. CSX is screaming, as is NIHD. Should have bought more.

My buy limit order for 1000 AOI @ $8.05 filled.
Also picked up 1000 ONSM @ $3.48

A.M. Buys

2000 SIGA @ $4.17
500 GIGM @ $12.31
100 NIHD @ $71.64
500 GIGM @ 12.35

Just sold 2000 SIGA @ $4.15 as I have the feeling it was going to make a buffoon out of me. And with man-sized gains in my other positions, who needs that?

Don't Get "Bernakeed"

Careful out there today. I'm always cautious when the Fed Chairman is speaking. Nothing like going to a meeting with the futures up, and coming back from the meeting to see the markets getting hacheted.

I'm watching GIGM and SIGA for a re-entry today. I'm looking to add more CEGE. I'm also considering NIHD as it looks to bounce off of a retracement to the break out point.

Tuesday, February 13, 2007

Night Cap

At one point in the day I was up about $750 bones. Then SIGA decided to release news, and the "sell the news" losers took the bait and ran it back down. I sold 2K SIGA at $4.13 for about a 50 buck gain. That really sucked after being up almost $1000.00 on the position. I imagine the same cycle for SIGA will repeat in a couple of weeks as another run up happens in expectation of the Human trial results for the Smallpox vaccine. Next time those bastards with inside info won't get the better of me. I'll let them run it up before the next release, and then I'll sell with them.

MVIS showed some signs of life today. I hesitate to say it has bottomed though as that will surely mean I will get punished more tomorrow.

CEGE is looking good, as is ONSM.

CSX was the unexpected standout (+3.77%), breaking out of a long base and gaining well over 1 point from my purchase price. If I have time later tonight I'll post a chart.

Overall, my account was plus only 14 bucks for the day, mainly due to losing my unrealized SIGA profits.

I Hate Sales People

Especially the ones that stop by my office without an appointment and interrupt every damn thing I have going on so that they can verbally spam me with their product. It makes it even worse when I can't periodically pull up my quote screen. The two sales people, and man and a woman are trying to sell me on a drug testing procedure that allows an employer to swab a mouse, or a desk, or a door knob and find out what drugs, if any, employees are using. Is that not that insane? What kind of world do we live in where I would want to go behind the backs of my employees and test the residues they leave behind? I was so pissed off sitting here listening to their speel. I get really upset about violations of privacy. Anyway, I'm done ranting now. Back to work.

New Buys

300 CSX @ $38.17
1000 CEGE @ 3.73

1000 CEGE @ 3.74
1000 ONSM @ 3.70

MVIS is breaking my heart. I'm hoping the quick drop beneath $3.00 is enough of a capitulation to bring some buyers in.

Monday, February 12, 2007

Night Cap

My account finished up $274.00 today, despite my buffoonery of buying 1K more MVIS @ $3.15. Within one minute of my purchase MVIS dropped to $3.10 where it stayed the rest of the day.

I'm having continued success with SIGA (wish I would have bought more lower) and ONSM. I am looking to add to SIGA and ONSM.
As for the overall market, I think we are still stuck in this trading range. While the bears were calling for the bottom to drop out today, nothing much really happened. Volume on the Nasdaq was the lowest in almost a month.
I think tomorrow will be a good day to initiate a few trades; unfortunately I'm fresh out of setups. That's probably a good thing as I need to focus on some issues at work for the next few days.


I have no idea why this continues to moonshot in the face of a market downdraft, but I'm not complaining.

Contacted IR at Onstream Media

I asked about Cisco's acquistion of Five Across and what it might mean for Onstream. The IR guy was very friendly and helpful. After speaking for a few minutes, he heard me typing, and asked who I was and if I was with the media. I told him that I wasn't with the media but that I published a blog. He asked that I not use his name.

This was his response to the initial question:

"Talked to CEO and investors about it on Friday. First we want to find out how much they paid. There was no information from the CEO that would impact negatively on relationship Onstream has with Five Across." He went on to say that typically the acquiring company does not want to disrupt the business model of the acquired company.

I went on to mention that a relationship between Cisco and Onstream would seem to benefit both parties since they are both after the TV/Video/Internet market, and that Onstream's video search function and DMSP platform would be a good fit for Cisco.

He responded that there are a lot of players such as Google looking to make a break into the market, and that he was a bit surprised that Cisco was going to give it a try as well, but that my "initial impressions are probably correct."

All in all I had a very favorable feeling/impression from our conversation. I will be looking for a PR from Onstream within a week or so providing investors with more information about what the Cisco/Five Across deal might mean for ONSM shareholders.

Friday, February 9, 2007

ONSM- Big News on the Horizon?

My purchase of 5K shares the day before ONSM broke out was definitely one of my better trades so far this year. After forming a symmetrical triangle, there was a series of days where ONSM traded in a tight range, making lower highs and lower lows. Then on Tuesday, it make a higher high and higher low, relative to the previous 4 days. As I saw this happening Tuesday, it felt like a good entry point.

ONSM continues to show a great deal of strength after its breakout, even while the rest of the markets struggle for direction. This type of strong trading always makes me wonder what is going on behind the scenes to keep the buyers coming in droves. I have found a couple of interesting tidbits which might explain why all the buyers are beating down ONSM's door.

First, back in December ONSM put out this PR.

Then we have this Cisco news out today.

It seems to me that ONSM is now a partner with CSCO to enable social networking and deliver online video and multimedia content.

I can not help but believe this is HUGE news, but based on today's action and volume, I'm wondering if the story leaked to the street a few days ago when the stock broke out. It is also possible only a few traders have connected the dots and the story needs more time to be digested.

I will be watching this one closely over the next week.

***UPDATE*** Sunday February 11th, 10:45 pm

I spent a good part of the weekend attempting to uncover what the possible relationship with Cisco might mean for Onstream Media Corp. Cisco's conference calls were not much help. What was helpful was this article:

Cisco's Vision for the Evolution of Video Communications and Entertainment:
Mike Volpi discusses the strategic importance of video in communications and media markets.

If you want to listen to a similar presentation, try these:

The Future of Video and TV
SVP/GM Mike Volpi on the Evolution of Video, Television
December 12, 2006 - SVP/General Manager Mike Volpi explains how the consumer demand for customized, personalized connections is shaking up the world of video and broadcast television.

Part II - SVP/GM Mike Volpi on the Evolution of Video, TV
December 12, 2006 - Part II: SVP/General Manager Mike Volpi explains how consumer demand for customized, personalized connections is shaking up the world of video and broadcast television.

There is a good bit to digest from the above links. I will do my best to paraphrase the key points as I feel they relate to ONSM.

  • Cisco wants to integrate TV, Internet, and Video over Internet
  • This intergration will be about "ME" which is to say that the consumer will decide when and where and how they are delivered their content of choice.
  • Cisco will provide the network as well as provide the platform and technology to integrate TV / Internet / Video over Internet
  • One of the critical pieces is the ability to search for videos
  • Another critical piece is for Cisco's clients to have a network and platform from which they can create user generated video content as well as participate in social networking
Onstream Media's latest conference call for their Q4 and FY 2006 is here.

There were several interesting areas in the call that may point to a future relationship with Cisco.

  • Onstream Media is the “Premier Platform for the management of rich media content.”
    This includes broadcasters, publishers, and user-generated content.
  • …Fast convenient access to search video of all types including news, weather, sports, movie trailers, music, and more.
  • "Our overall focus is to continue to deploy the company’s development efforts towards the anticipated integration of internet and television thereby enabling our clients to more effectively monetize their content and increase viewer stickiness."
  • Convert speech within video to text to greatly improve the accuracy of video search by users.

As for Five Across, the company just acquired by Cisco:

  • "Onstream Media is working with Five Across on several social networking projects where Onstream will provide the technology for managing the user generated content of the networks."
  • Onstream goes on to say in the Q&A, "The Five Across relationship is one of our most critical relationships. As a provider of social networks Five Across is the best in the business, that’s why we partnered with them.”

If you want to skip to what I feel are the most important parts of the CC, I would listen to the second question, as well as to the question at 25:00 (about the meeting of internet and TV) and 34:05 (about the relationship with Five Across).

So What Does All This Mean?

The explosion of video on the net and the subsequent upgrades of networks to handle the increased bandwith will undoubtably be good for Cisco's business. But the real story here is that Cisco seemingly is vying to lead the integration of TV/Video/Internet both through development of the networks but also through software and new platforms for the user to produce, manage, and distribute content. A key feature for both business and home integration of TV and Video/Internet is the ability to effectively search for content. ONSM seems to have a robust search feature which allows one to generate text from video which makes for more accurate searching. Cisco's purchase of Five Across speaks to their desire to target the social networking explosion. ONSM's Digital Media Services Platform allows the potential users of social networks, whether they are teenagers or professional broadcasters, to publish video with one click.

Finally, both ONSM and CSCO are striving to integrate TV/Video/Internet. The recent purchase of Five Across by Cisco bodes well for ONSM's future. ONSM's platform seems to provide the functionality Cisco needs to provide full service video capabilities to the users of their networks. However, I can not determine from information available to the public at this time whether there will be any future for Onstream Media as a partner or more with Cisco.

I will be making a call to both CSCO and ONSM investor relations on Monday and will publish anything I find out.

Night Cap

The good news is I had two stocks up today- SIGA and ONSM. The bad news was that I gave up a lot of gains in my other positions before selling them. The other bad news is that I'm still holding MVIS, which got killed today, although it felt like it might be at a point of capitulation. I'm almost immune to the losses I've incurred with MVIS. Its like I don't even think about them anymore, except when I try to sleep, and then I find myself praying...I know it is not healthy. Please don't preach to me about holding too long onto losers. I really don't do it very often. Maybe once or twice a year. And only when I really believe in the story.

I have some interesting stats from January's trades that I want to share and analyze if I get some time this weekend.

A quick glance at today's account balance after the close tells me I'm still up about 500 bucks for the year. Without my MVIS losses, I would probably be up close to 8%. I will just keep chugging away at the gains, and when MVIS does decide to come back around, my account will be fat and happy.


1000 GIGM @ 12.35
200 HXM @ 62.25

HXM made a buffoon out of me since I called the top yesterday and then bought back in again at the HOD. However, I can't stomach a trip back to the moving averages.

Just wanted to preserve my profits in GIGM since the markets seem to want to go to hell.

However, since I sold, these figures will probably represent the LOD.

*Update* 2:48 sold 500 AINV @ $22.88 I hated selling it as it was really looking sweet, put it was getting ready to trade beneath my purchase price. Maybe today's selling turns out to be benign, but I don't want to get stuck holding any bags here.

*Update* 3:16 my limit order to sell 1000 ONSM @ $3.60 triggered.

More Siga

1000 @ $4.11

Biotech can kick my behind if I'm not careful, but this one seems to have a buyer.

On Days Like These

I'd so like to be home trading on my laptop with CNBC blaring while I oogle the Money Honey. When I have several positions making good money, I just want to pack my crap and leave the office for good. Luckily I'm am putting together requests for proposals this week so I have had ample excuses to be chained to my desk and computer.


My speculative play yesterday is moving today on volume.


Looks strong here, as I mentioned yesterday it is due for a bounce.

*Update* at 10:45 AOB not looking so strong anymore. I think the sellers may have the reins here until a ER date is released.

Good Morning World

From where I'm sitting, the world looks pretty grand. Futures are up a tad, there has been some healthy pre-market action in a few of my positions, and it is Friday!

I'm still waiting for the Mother of all Short Covering Rally. Could it be today?

Thursday, February 8, 2007

New Service I Will Offer-

My new service will be to call the HOD as it happens for any given stock. Seems I have a propensity to buy the HOD, so I figure if you all want to know when a stock is trading near a HOD, just message me, I'll take a look at it, and if I want to buy it after seeing the chart, then you'll know it will be at or near the HOD.

Reference HXM. I bought that within one penny of the HOD.

All in all today went well. AINV is looking really strong here. The chart looks like it wants to go parabolic, although I think this type of stock going parabolic is doubtful. I am very happy that I set my stop and stuck with it. In previous months I would have sold AINV yesterday on the weakness, and therefore would have incurred a loss and missed today's move. I've got to give my ideas time to work. I think I'm doing that here, and I hope to be rewarded well for it.

ONSM and GIGM both had nice consolidation days. I fully expect these to resume moving upward soon.

AOB is one to keep your eyes on. I feel it has completed a short retracement on lower volume. It closed strong today and should get a bounce tomorrow.

1000 SIGA @ 4.06

This one looks like it could take off much like ONSM did.

*Update* I didn't realize this was a biotech. I had it housed on my screen with semiconductors. I generally would rather not trade these unless I know news is imminent or the chart speaks loudly to me. Neither is happening here, so I may dump this if it shows the slightest bit of weakness. It was speculative anyway.

USO Is Screaming

Up over 3.6%

I don't own any, but I'm watching closely to see how the markets react to it.

Re-purchased HXM

200 @ 63.91

This is one strong stock. My only fear is that today starts a consolidation period, which I don't want to be around for. But my fear of missing out on more of the run is greater. I do see now that it is already trading .10 lower than I paid. I can buy a top to the penny. Lets see if my ability to buy the HOD holds true today.

Oh yeah, I also bought back 500 shares of GIGM @$12.55. It looks to me as if the run could continue from here.

AINV looking to run?

I did not get to hear the AINV conference call, but I am assuming from the share price reaction that it was not bad.

ONSM Ripping!

Glad I kept 3K. These types of winners make up for weeks of losing $100-$200 on 50% of my trades.

Took Some Profits

As expected, HXM reversed, and I sold 200 @ $63.20

I sold half my GIGM as well- 500 shares at $12.57. I got a terrible price on that order.

Also sold 2K of my ONSM at $3.41

Saving half a position is one way I am attempting to squeeze more gains out of my trades. This will hopefully counteract my tendency to sell too early. At least I will still have half a position should the price resume upwards.

Good Morning

Today I will be looking for a possible reversal in HXM, which I've been long in since $59.00 I think it has been up about 6 days in a row. I will likely take profits if this happens and look to get back in lower.

GIGM and ONSM both look strong in the pre-market. I really want to take some profits on both, but I know I tend to sell too early, so I will watch the action as much as possible and sell if one or both look like they are reversing rather than consolidating.

AINV- hard to say what this is going to do. CC this a.m.

Night Cap

Well today was a good day. I had great gains in ONSM and GIGM. AINV did not go as planned, and was down in AH, but I am still holding as my stop was not violated.

I was proud of myself today for not selling any ONSM or GIGM; in fact I bought more. I am trying to get my winners to make a good deal more than my losers, and the only way to do that is to have more shares of a winner and hold it longer than a loser. I wanted to sell some of both ONSM and GIGM, yet I held on and both finished at either the HOD or near it.

Wednesday, February 7, 2007

Plan Executed for AINV

Bought 500 @ 22.88

Also looking good this morning is ONSM, which gapped up seemingly for purely technical reasons.

So the mystery of the day is will the Nasdaq hold 2475, which has been serious resistance over the past few days?

10:24am update. Bought 500 GIGM @ $12.00
Still trying to get more ONSM on the cheap.

Tuesday, February 6, 2007

Back to the Basics

Part of making a good trade is having a good plan. For me, a good plan starts with a great chart. AINV sure is a beauty. Marketwatch says this:

"One area that continues to steal the headlines is private equity lending by hedge funds and high-profile private equity pools of capital. The move to go private is sweeping many industries, as many companies simply find it easier to operate more efficiently being private as opposed to being beholden to the rigors of the Sarbanes-Oxley reporting requirements for publicly traded companies. As such, Business Development Companies, or BDCs, like Apollo Investment (AINV) that invest in mid-size private growth companies are poised to continue their winning ways in 2007. The stock pays a dividend yield of 9% and is forecasted to grow top-line revenues by 33% in the current year."

Curiously enough, if you pull up this chart at their data actually shows the Nov. highs being around 23.25, which I think makes for an even prettier chart, if that is possible.

So where is the trade here? I like to start small, so my initial purchase may be 500 shares at ~22.80 Wednesday morning. The approximate mean of the average true range is .40 I would double that, making an .80 cent stop. I don't like stops at major whole numbers, so I will adjust down. Keep in mind one of my trading goals is to let winners run and not set stops as tightly. This stop works well because it is just below the pivot point. I think if one would want to set a stop tighter, I'd say 22.45 would be a good place.

For a target, I will shoot for $25.50 The chart shows AINV tends to run about 3 bucks after breaking out. So, for a tighter stop, this trade gives a good risk to reward. If you are like me, I've seen a million times where a stock will revisit the pivot point/breakout level and then take off like a rocket. That is one reason why should I decide to buy this I will give a looser stop to allow for AINV to revisit the pivot.

The drawback to this trade is that the price is extended farther from the 20dma than I would like. We'll see if this trade gets executed tomorrow.

Life Happens

Its been awhile, so I will make this post short and sweet and then try to get back to posting my trading stuff soon.

Kids, sick kids, earaches, very little sleep, contracts on new houses, open houses in our home, more contracts on houses, bargaining, work falling apart around me, etc.

So while trying to manage all of the above, I have been making some trades. When I last posted I was lamenting selling too early, and I had decided to try and hold onto my winners longer. So far I have been able to do that, to an extent. I have also been engaging in other various forms of trading buffoonery, which has effectively canceled out the winners I have held onto. I have also realized that I have been setting my stops too tight. When I get back to blogging regularly, I will detail my plans to allow for greater losses which will hopefully bring greater gains.