Monday, January 29, 2007

Good Morning

AAPL 100 @ 86.52 (Had a trigger finger on that one...should have waited)
NIHD 100 @ 71.60

SPIL is still strong
HXM is doing a lot of nothing
MVIS showing signs of life. Will it get sold later like the last 5 days? We'll see...

Sunday, January 28, 2007

Week In Review

All things considered, it was a good week. I don't have all my records at home, some are at work, but I believe I'm right at breakeven for the year and neutral for the week. That's not bad considering all the chopping around the averages have done. My account is mostly damaged from the unrealized losses category a la MVIS. My closed positions have been on the plus side every week, as they were this week. Unfortunately the gains on my closed positions are equaling my losses in MVIS. As always, this week I sold some positions too early: NIHD and SPIL. Had I held NIHD through the week, my gains would have been much greater.

I have put a screen shot from Excel to show the week's transactions. The first five columns represent the buy (or sell short), and the second five columns represent the closed position where a negative share price denotes a short sell.

It is clear from this spreadsheet that I have to find a way to get my winners to be significantly larger than my losers. The only way I know how to do that is to let the winners run longer. My losers are being kept to small amounts, usually averaging ~1% (which is typically between $100-$200.) A $200.00 loss is only .002% of my capital. As I've said before, I always sell too early. I am going to begin to focus on working on whatever psychology I need to hold my winners longer.

My wife and I spent the better part of the weekend readying our house to be shown, as it is now on the market. We made an offer Saturday on a house we really like, but due to it being listed incorrectly and being owned by a relocation company and not an individual the deal may fall through or need to be re-negotiated. With our living situation close to being in limbo, I am working hard to stay grounded with my trading. The added stress of selling a house, buying another, and moving may make it difficult to make focused trades. I want to be sure to stick with a plan and not trade frantically and haphazardly. If the buying and selling of the houses becomes too much, I will have to be honest with myself and look at taking some time off.

Friday, January 26, 2007

HXM Update

HXM has now broken the trendline I referenced in last night's post. I think this is a good short at these levels, and can still provide a sound risk / reward ratio.

Couldn't Bear It

Covered 700 TTWO @ 16.74

I don't want to be short here if the Naz is going to try going green. Haven't set a stop yet on HXM, but my short may have been premature. We'll see... I still want to get short on TTWO, but I will let the longs have some fun with it first.

I can't tell you how close I was to selling MVIS this morning. Like a fickle woman, she is playing with my head.

SPIL is Strong

Bought 1000 SPIL @ 8.47

Embracing the Bear

Sold short 300 TTWO @ 16.78
Sold short 200 HXM @ 57.77

Good Morning Bears

Sold short 400 TTWO @ 17.09
Bought 100 NIHD @ 70.42
Bought 100 NIHD @ 70.79

Thursday, January 25, 2007

Night Cap- Short Setups

A schizophrenic market is hard to trade. However, these two stocks look ready to decline.

First up is TTWO. Christmas time is over, and this video gamer looks ready for some seasonality. Note the Head and Shoulders top, with todays action bumping against resistance of the trend line and 50 dma. Combine that with declining volume on the bounce, huge negative MACD in early Jan., and Stochs that look overbought, and I think it is ripe.

Next up HXM, which I believe is a Mexican homebuilder. Sorry folks, I'm mostly a technician; don't count on me for fundamentals.

I've been wanting to get short on this for a few weeks. The bearish MACD divergence would have been the time to get short here. Also note the low volume new high. Now I'm looking for a break of that trendline. The 50 day seems a good target. With a stop at 59.03, that makes for a 4:1 risk to reward.

Keep in mind HXM could just be consolidating for another move up. Wait for the break.

Wrapping Things Up

Sold 1500 SPIL @ $8.34

All in all, I have made a profit today on my closed positions, despite being stopped out of HANS and CMCSA. I should have sold AUY and SPIL earlier, but I was thinking the indexes would have a small retracement of yesterday's gains. I didn't think it would retrace ALL of them. Oh well, good to have profits when the indexes are tanking. I as write this, SPIL has rallied over my exit level. However, the chart is looking to make a very bearish candlestick outside of the Boll bands, so I feel strongly it will get sold hard tomorrow. I like SPIL and will try to time a good re-entry on a test of the breakout level somewhere around $8.00

I'm still watching MVIS closely. The chart still says "hold" to me. A break through the 20day will say "sell." As if to mock me and cause me even greater pain and confusion, MVIS is showing a little bit of strength going into the close. It looks like there will be another day of watching, waiting, and angst.

This range bound market is really hard to trade. I keep telling myself I will sit out until it breaks one way or the other...Tonight, if I have time, I'm going to patrol for short setups.

Stopped Out

Had a couple trades get stopped out today.
CMCSA 200 @ 44.81
HANS 200 @ 37.17

Totally Disgusted

I am at the point of hating MVIS. In my opinion, it is trading as if the secondary announcement is imminent. Every spike is sold, and the only buying interest seems to be retail. I wonder if mgmt. has already been doing road shows. If so, I'm sure the street is shorting it and will cover with the new shares. I want to dump this. I am going to make a decision on it today.


Sold 1000 AUY @ 13.21 It will probably be the LOD. My stop was at 13.18, so I figured I'd save myself a few dimes. Again, it will probably bounce from the levels, because I always sell at the wrong time. I was worried it might fill this mornings gap, and I could get it back cheaper. We'll see.

Good Morning

Didn't get a chance to update last night. Today I plan to maintain existing positions. I might have a couple that will need to be sold. MVIS looks ripe to run, finally. If the Naz can break above 2475, I will consider going all in. Right now I have only about 50% of my capital in the market.

Good trading to all!

Wednesday, January 24, 2007

And More!

500 AUY @ 12.87
500 AUY @ 12.95

I'm outta here for my meeting with my sons teacher. Ya'll be sure to prop up MVIS for me.

More Buys

200 CMCSA @ 45.02

Its About Damn Time!

MVIS up on some volume. Holy Smokes! A close over 3.70 would make my day. Hopefully this post won't jinx the stock.

Just got a call from my son's teacher. He pulled down his pants (not underwear though) and "shook his booty" at the class. Looks like I won't get to see today's close due to needing to conference with the teacher.

More Buys

500 SPIL @ 8.25

This Mornings Buys

200 HANS @ 38.32
1000 SPIL @ 8.15

Futures Are Up

As I write this, Naz futures are up 11 points.

Here is a nice chart of one I've traded in the past. If tech can stay strong today. this one may have legs. MACD also showing room to move up.

Tuesday, January 23, 2007

Time For One More

Well before I could get in bed, I caught some of Fast Money. The guys were talking about today's action in Metals and Commodities. One guy really likes GLD, and mentioned even being willing to chase it tomorrow. I looked up the chart, and it was so nice, I had to post it. Looks like it could make a solid breakout tomorrow. I also posted a chart of a gold stock I trade from time to time, AUY. This chart is also looking ripe for tomorrow. Look at today's volume. Wow!

Night Cap

Well my trading today was haphazard and frantic. I guess that is what I get when I go into the day planning not to trade. I am lucky that I ended the day with a profit. It seems that when I make trades before developing a plan and a reason for the trade, I am much more likely to sell too early, and I often set my stops too tight. I also do not trust this market right now. That also makes me likely to trade erratically and haphazardly.

The boss came back from a week long vacation today...That always makes things a little more intense. Its funny that I can tell from the footsteps whether my boss or asst. boss are coming down to my office.

I do not have any setups for tomorrow. I hope I'm not disappointing any readers by not providing stellar watch lists and setups. I promise I will in the future. I have to leave the house tomorrow at 3:30 a.m. to get to an early meeting, so I'm going to sacrifice research for sleep. I hope to be able to watch the markets open. Trader Mike seems to think the Naz is due for a bounce tomorrow. Good trading to everyone.

Water's feeling chilly...

Stopped out of GROW at 44.27 for .40 gain.
Sold 200 NIHD @ 66.87 for a 1.46 gain on 1 set and .97 gain on the other 100.
My short on ALL was stopped out for a .38 loss. Of course it only went up a nickle farther, and now my short would be back in the money. So it goes.

I do not trust this market today. Feeling like a bull trap to me.

Update- now sold 500 VPHM at 15.41 for a small .07 loss. This is an intuitive sell. I just don't like the action, although it has held the gap all day. I get really squirrely about holding anything when the indexes are not trending one way or the other.

Still Dipping

100 more NIHD @ 65.90

Dipping My Toes In

100 share buy of NIHD @ $65.41
200 shares of GROW @ 43.87
500 shares of VPHM @ 15.48

Monday, January 22, 2007

MVIS Uptrend Still Intact

Despite the bearish index action, I'm still holding MVIS. I'm finding some small comfort in the uptrend line holding and $3.50 becoming support. I didn't include the 20DMA on the chart, but MVIS has been holding just above it. This is typically where I like to buy stocks. In fact, had I not jumped the gun and bought too much too early, I would be buying here. I would really like to see some trading above $3.75 tomorrow while avoiding making a lower low. I will feel better about this position then.

In order to not suffer some serious losses on MVIS should it completely breakdown, I am going to have to do some soul-searching about how much more of a drawdown I can allow, reset my stop, and not look back if it is hit.

Long Overdue Update and the Nasty Nasdaq

A subscription service that I use and have had lots of success with issued a Nasdaq exit signal last Thursday. The exit signal was generated based on a number of distribution days within a 15 trading day period. Last time a sell signal was issued was May 10. I have circled both days in red on the chart above. I have been bearish since middle December, and went into the new year holding long QID (short the Q's). It looks like I might have been a bit early. I am not looking to get aggresively short yet, as I feel the Naz may bounce around in a range between 2475 and 2400. If 2400 is broken, I will establish some initial positions. Similarly, I will look to get more aggresively long if we trade above 2475.

I feel it is serendipitous that the recent market action is a hard market to make money in because for the past week or so I really have not felt like trading. Not only have I not found any setups that have really excited me, I think I just need a break. I did 30.26% last year, and it wasn't made very easily. I think now is a good time to relax a bit, work on refining my strategies, and wait for the market to establish a new trend. Furthermore, my wife and I are in the market for a new home (great time to buy folks) and that is taking up a lot of my time and energy. Did I mention I have two young children? Not like any of this makes a difference, but I felt like I might need to explain my recent absence to my 1.3 readers.

The one trade I put on late last week, a short of GES, was stopped out for a tiny loss. Of course had my stop been 3 pennies higher I would not have been stopped out and could have captured todays gains. I finished out last week about breakeven for the year so far, so I am really not feeling compelled to trade as I don't have any major losses to make up, and there is a lot of time left in 07 for huge gains.

I made one trade today, a 200 share short of ALL at $63.36 I will continue to nibble here and there with small positions until the market either corrects or breaks out of its range.

Friday, January 19, 2007

Getting Killed in MVIS

Every year it seems like I have one stock that I'll hold through thick and thin because I believe in the story. MVIS looks like it will be mine this year. My losses are generally kept to no more than 2% per trade, and usually around .5% of total capital. It is easy to see I am down a great deal more than that on MVIS. It sucks to suffer through the pain, but I feel confident in the company and mgmt., and I know that when news is released about any contract that it will go through the roof.

Yesterday I had a meeting at 2:00 that lasted well into the evening, so I was not able to watch the close, or develop any lists for today. I think with today being options expriy, and with the sell off on the Naz, that it is a good day to stay on the sidelines. My only trade this morning has been a short of GES, 100 shares @ $73.06. Retail is strong right now, and I like the company- it just looks overextended.

Thursday, January 18, 2007

Ouch. LTXX!!!

Well I had a meeting this morning at 9:00, and wouldn't you know it, LTXX decides to pick this morning to sell off, triggering my stops. Sold 1K at 5.53 and 1K at 5.39. That makes this trade the biggest $$$ loser so far this year. I'm pissed, but taking my lumps like a good boy, because like the Phantom says, "The smallest loser is the biggest winner in the markets."

My only position now is MVIS, and I can see the SOB's are taking advantage of the light volume and hitting it hard.

Wednesday, January 17, 2007

Nite Cap

Today was a good day. The account finished up just over a C-note. I did not go into the day with any GREAT setups, so I did not put on any new positions. I went with the futures and my intuition and dumped most everything on the open, which was a good move. I did not deviate from my trading plan for the day. I did add to one position. More on that later.

In order to prove wrong the adage "Dumb money buys in the morning; smart money buys in the afternoon," I bought 1000 more of LTXX at $5.69 at 3:59 p.m. My rationale for this doubling of my position in LTXX is that it will bounce from the 200 day, and also has strong support rising from the trendline starting from the November lows. I'm hoping this doubling of support with a major moving average and multi-month trendline will hold strong. My stop is at 5.53, but that may be a few pennies too high. Brian has a post from a few days ago about LTXX as well. He may have turned me on to the stock, actually.
Next up is a review of MVIS. As you can see MVIS broke above the bull triangle and has been holding there on decreasing volume. There is a big shareholder meeting tomorrow where there will more than likely be a vote for many new shares to be authorized. I think this meeting has been holding the price in check. Broker A finds nothing to be concerned about. The chart still looks great, with the OBV making news highs, and the MACD refusing to cross over. I'm hoping for a confirmation of direction within the next few days.
Tomorrow's trading plan will consist of trying to repurchase cheaper shares of companies I dumped this morning.
I will add WDC and SORL to my watchlist. I think WDC is primed and ready. It is really late, or I'd post WDC's chart.

Score One for the Wood

As posted below I dumped my holdings (except LTXX and MVIS) onto the market open. I had to be out of the office most of the day, and I hate trading during Fed report days. Plus, the indexes were in need of correcting. I see that with the exception of CMCSA, everything is trading below where I sold it. I'm often not that skilled in my trading, but I guess even a broken clock blah blah blah....

Here are the prices I got for my sells:
DNA 200 @ $88.42
CMCSA 200 @ $44.45
AOI 1500 @ $7.45
IMOS 1500 @ $7.15

Morning Dump

In true swing trader fashion, I dumped everything I own except for MVIS. I often sell too early, but with the weakness today, and the Beige Book, I'd rather miss out on more profits than incur losses. I will post the prices for my sells when I return.

Tuesday, January 16, 2007

Night Cap

Except for my one dumb arse trade (selling AOB too early) I was happy with my trading today. I added to my existing positions as planned, and got good prices (except my buy of MVIS @ 3.91). I did not put on any new positions as I did not go into the morning with any good setups. The account closed up $994.86, +2.2% for the year.

Tomorrow I have a meeting at 10:00 a.m. I really hate any meeting before 11:00 a.m. as it makes it difficult to watch the open and adjust any stops and set any new orders. I am still looking tonight for one or two GREAT setups. I will not put on any new positions unless they are money.

Befriend the Network Admin.

The trend is your friend, so is the Network Administrator (NA). If you are thinking about trading while at work, it is crucial that you consider the network that will carry your orders to the outside world. Do you have privileges to install new software on your work computer? Is there software installed which limits your surfing privileges? Does your company monitor what sites you visit? Is streaming data allowed? How often does the network fail?

The key to resolving the above issues is to get to know the NA. Specifically, what does he think about the company? Does he seem to like his job? To whom does he hold his allegiances? It will be important to get a read on these aspects of his personality before approaching him.

When it comes time to approach the NA, you certainly do not want to give the impression that you will spend copious amounts of company time trading. I suggest admitting that you “dabble” in stock trading and that periodically you would like to be able to log into your account and “check out how things are going.” Watch closely for his reaction. If he does not seem overly concerned, ask him if there are any known issues with the network which would preclude you from running your platform. Be sure to closely monitor his reactions and body language. If he seems interested in how the software works, do not be very specific. Simply tell him something such as, “I set buy and sell orders from home, and they are executed automatically for me. I just want to be able to check and see if anything has executed.” It may be that you find out that he is going to sing the company song, and that trading at work will not be feasible for your situation. However, I believe the typical reaction from NA is this: It is not pornography; it is not going to compromise the network, so what the hell?

If you find your NA agreeable, and the network actually permits you to trade, then it becomes time for gifts and well-timed compliments. My NA’s wife is a mortgage broker. I refer as many people as possible to her. If I have a particularly good month, I get a gift certificate for a local restaurant and enclose it within a card to the NA. I typically write the following: “I really appreciate your help in keeping the network up and running, and helping me whenever I have a technical issue.” Whenever you find yourself in a group setting/meeting, say anything you can that is complimentary about the NA and the network in general. I do not use tobacco products anymore, but my NA is a smoker. If I see him outside having a cig, I will typically bum one from him. The key here is to form a deep allegiance with your NA.

Even after 3 years of building a relationship with my NA, he still does not know the extent of my involvement in the markets. He only knows that the computer executes trades for me, and that I like to watch things trade when I get a chance. I have his personal cell number and beeper number and can call him as soon as there is any problem with the network. This relationship goes a long way to ensuring that I almost always have safe, secure, and confidential access to the markets while at work.

Bought another 1K of MVIS @ 3.91 I now have a full position. I see while I type this that someone is dumping 40K shares at the market. Losers. I'm sure there are still lots of shares to be covered, and many players that want in at a lower price.

Picked up 1000 MVIS @ 3.84

Bought 500 more IMOS @ 7.06

Sold 1000 AOB @ 13.48

Bought 500 AOB @ 13.46

Trading Plan for 1/16/07

I don't have any great setups for today. Everything looks a bit extended. I will focus today on adding to existing positions.

If I were going to establish any new positions, it would probably be in ALV, which has broken out of a long flat base, and has some news today to push it higher.

MVIS seems to be seeing a tad bit of volume pre-market. I will be focused today on adding more MVIS at a good price.

AOB is seeing a tad bit of volume pre-market, probably due to the article published in IBD this past weekend, citing 2007 as the year AOB expands to the U.S. market. If AOB does not open strong, I will be selling my small position.

The boss is gone for the next week. Hopefully things will be relaxed around the office.

Sunday, January 14, 2007

Positions as of 1/12/07

Thanks to Broker A, I've been accumulating MVIS. So far I'm in for 3K: 1K @ $4, 1K @ $3.90, and 1K @ $3.79. Based on this chart, I think there is a good possibility for upward momo to resume on Tuesday. I will be looking to add another 2K before the next leg up. Brian also has a post about MVIS.

I'm also long Comcast. 200 shares at $43.25. While Consumer Reports ranks them 11th out of 13 Cable Broadband Providers, none of the buyers on Friday seemed to care. I should have added to this position. I kept waiting for a pullback, but it never came. Truly, I hate Comcast. Maybe this trade will pay for a year's worth of cable, broadband, and phone.

DNA broke above year-long resistance on huge volume on a killer ER. This weekly chart shows the strength of the move. There hasn't been upside volume like we saw last week since 2005. I picked up 100 shares at $85.80 and another 100 @ $87.52. I should have waited for a better pullback on the last 100.

I'm a little embarrassed to say I know very little about AOI, other than I love the chart. I think they do something un-sexy, like tobacco. Anyway, I'm long 1K @ $7.16 and another 500 at $7.20

I'm also long 1K IMOS @ $7.05, 1K LTXX @ $5.75, and 500 AOB @ 13.09. For the year so far I'm up about 500 bucks. I started the year off short the Naz via QID, and was also short TOL. Those trades put me behind early on.
I should add that should you buy or sell the above stocks, you could lose money. I am not a licensed financial professional.

First Post

I feel as though this first-ever post to my blog should be profound. Unfortunately, I don't have enough time for that. I would like to give thanks to other trading bloggers who have really helped me out over the past year. Special thanks to Ugly, Mike, Brian, and Broker A.

I intend for this blog to post my buys and sells and to have both my good trades and bad trades detailed here. I hope that public disclosure of my trades and the thought processes that lead to them will make me more profitable.

I am primarily a swing trader, although I do put on day trades if I see a good setup. My work situation allows for some freedom to trade. Some days I can have several hours of time to watch my positions trade. Most days I can watch the open and the close, and have an hour or so during lunch. However, other days I will put on a large position only to have something critical come up at work, and I'll have to leave the trade unattended. Trying to balance working full-time and trading full-time has made me use stop-losses judiciously. Nobody in my office has a clue about my involvement in the financial markets.

As time and interest permits, I'll post some charts and discuss my strategies.