Tuesday, July 24, 2007

Jinx! You Owe Me 10 Large

Well after countin' my chickens before they hatched (rather loud counting, I might add), I probably should have known that today would bring punishment. I feel I must recap for my own sanity. Nassim Nicholas Taleb talks about how humans often need to create narratives in order to bring order and sense to events which are truly of a random nature, have no definitive start or end, and no definable cause. Such a narrative is probably what you are about to read.

After waiting 6 months for the MVIS contract announcement, I happened to have a meeting today, scheduled in a location with no ready computer access, and absolutely no way to observe any real-time action. Talk about rotten, stinking luck. Before leaving for the meeting, sometime around 8:35 a.m., I put 2K shares up in the pre-market, limit-sell at $6.80. It didn't hit, so I started moving my ask down in .5 increments. By 8:40, the ask was dropping more quickly than I could keep up with my limit-sells, and I absolutely had to leave for the meeting. No big deal. I felt certain the stock would open above $6.00 and run towards $7.00.

I called my wife around 10:40 and she checked Yahoo and said it was trading in the 5.80s. Ouch I thought. Also, she busted my balls a little for not selling in the pre-market. Double ouch. See, she really wants that property in the mountains. Anyway, I didn't spend a lot of time dwelling on it since there was really nothing I could do except wait until I get home.

Anyway, you know the ending. MVIS traded lower throughout most of the afternoon. By the time I got home, it was trading at $5.53. In the end, before the close, I sold only 1K shares, at $5.40. I decided that the stock is probably less risky now than before the contract announcement, and I've held it for so long, what the hell. I think it will go higher.

In other news, during the market meltdown today, I sold everything, literally everything else. I took a huge loss on GIGM. It is senseless that I allowed myself to take over a 2K hit. There were many techical sell-signals, and I chose not to act on them. From the analysis of my 2Q trades, I know that keeping losses small is what keeps me profitable. I should have cut GIGM loose 2 days ago.

ALVR and SWHC were both up on the day, but I sold them anyway. These were profitable trades.

PFWD was sold as well, for a small loss. PFWD was reporting earnings tonight, and I suddenly had a feeling I was gambling. Turns out that the earnings were good and the stock traded up after-hours.

The singular, overall reason that I liquidated everything is that I suspect the markets might be entering a phase of correction or consolidation. Secondarily, my stress level at home and work has been building, and I need a break for my health and sanity. If you somewhat follow how I trade, you know that when market meltdowns occur while I'm stressed out at work and at home, I typically sell everything. I'm not bragging about this or recommending it as a strategy. It is just what I do. Howver, pausing at this point will leave me up 14% YTD. I'm not really proud of that, but the year is not over.

Here is the breakdown.
100 NTRI @ $63.90
100 LZ @ $66.32
500 PFWD @ $16.40
1500 GIGM @ $11.75
1000 ALVR @ $10.64
1000 SWHC @ $18.00

29 comments:

JJ2000426 said...

SWC down another 8.25% today. In the past three days it dropped a total of 20%. SWC is the only palladium and platinum producer in the US. Palladium and platinum are very important precious metals that see price trippled in the past three years. This is a stock with extremely bullish fundamentals and this may well be the CAPITULATION event where you get an excellent entry point. See my analysis of the SWC fundamentals.

mdawsz said...

Wood, good post. I'm confident you'll be able to sell MVIS higher than today's close.

JJ, you are proving to be a a major jackass - we're talking same order of magnitude as Ducati here. Why don't you take a hint, everyone wants you to stop spamming their blogs, it's just not cool. Fuck off.

Woodshedder said...

JJ- that stuff is getting annoying. I'm going to start deleting it. You seem smart. Lets hear some other analysis besides SWC.

king said...

Don't tell me you sold PFWD.

I bought it on your advice and just sold it for $2 per share profit.

newequity said...

Do not sell your MVIS until it goes up again.

Woodshedder said...

King, I sold it just before the close yesterday. I'm glad you profited! When the market starts to meltdown, my first reaction is always to liquidate. So far, with everything except for PFWD, it looks like it was the right thing to do. Anyway, thanks for stopping by.

nncoco said...

Smart move selling everything especially NTRI. This sub-prime mess is not going away.

jeffpaz said...

Fat people still need food, guns, and PicoP though nncoco.

Woodshedder said...

Jeffpaz- they sure do. However, I've got some major deadlines in early August, so its gets really stressful for me to maintain trading positions and everything else. I don't think I make good trading decisions when under a lot of stress from work.

ShortDaBull said...

wood, you're gonna be my new market tell. When you sell out, it's time to buy :-)

Woodshedder said...

SDB- I'm okay with that.

If you look a few posts ago, I was waiting to buy this level. However, I didn't see it getting here on such a large volume sell-off day. A few days of selling wouldn't have bothered me nearly as much as a huge distribution day.

Danny said...

dont quit brah

Another Brian said...

Wood;
That post struck a nerve with me, my funny bone.
I was getting pissed at waiting, so the night before I put up a few shares at the top of the last range. It got filled alright, at the top of the open, so I made a hefty buck on a few shares.
I'm still pissed though. I have to lightem my MVIS load, too heavy % in my account. Beside I have cheap options that I waited for months ago that will get me $$ if things happen by December.

At least the ball is rolling, the next market momo should make this run a little.

Broker A said...

Summer doldrums. It gets easier.

You are still up 13k from a few months ago.

Woodshedder said...

I'm not quitting guys, but thanks for the encouragement, especially from Fly, who has displayed an unnerving show of kindness.

Again, I have deadlines in early Aug. at work and two young kids at home. Trying to trade through all that and not having time to research and everything is just asking for a blow up.

ShortDaBull said...

wood, you're gonna be my new market tell. When you sell out, it's time to sell :-)

Woodshedder said...

Shortda, I was wondering if you were going to show up here and change your opinion of me as a contrary indicator! lol...Hope you are not getting punished too severely.

jeffpaz said...

Looks like you bailed at the right time... Holding MVIS for life? I figure to sell at $10 or $4. :)

ShortDaBull said...

i'm getting a nice anal pounding. lol. Buying some NVDA and HANS down here though.

nncoco said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
nncoco said...

I understand your reasoning. I was in cash through the run-up in March-April due to some very demanding business concerns. I run my own company and have some seasonal trade shows.

I was tempted to sell yesterday behind you. Doing so would have saved me a 2.5% drop today. It takes discipline to be a long. I am in training.

Woodshedder said...

nncoco- Every guru I've ever read states firmly that trading when you know you shouldn't be trading is a recipe for disaster.

I try to keep that in mind. I guess I was partly luck in that the meltdown has coincided with a ramp up of work stress.

JJ2000426 said...
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
Woodshedder said...

The above post was yet another spam by JJ2000426.

JJ- I mean no disprespect- I understand you just want to make money like the rest of us. I'm just tired of the spam.

JJ2000426 said...

All I need is you look at SWC, express an opinion, and then I do not bother you again. Calex.blogspot.com did that and I never bothered him again.

Woodshedder said...

JJ- I'm no punk, and I could careless what calex does or did. If you want me to profile a certain company, then you need to pony up and visit my sponsors. Once you provide me some noticeable improvement in my revenues, I will gladly issue a post, just for you and SWC. Make sure I'll notice!

nncoco said...

jj is desperate. Man up, take your loss and leave the blogs alone.

Deborah said...

I love your honest frank post.

I think your strategy of selling out when you are uncomfortable is a good one and I think it is a good one even if stocks go up.

It keeps your capital safe and it lets your re-evaluate and this is always a good strategy, imho.

Woodshedder said...

Thanks for your comments deborah. I would like to be able to quantify the potential gains or losses stemming from liquidating when the markets exhibit a certain quantifable level of weakness, and buying back after another quantifiable period or event.