Friday, July 20, 2007

Will the Dip Be Bought?

Now normally, on a day like today, I would have sold off almost everything I own. However, I didn't do that this morning because typically I just end up buying everything back higher. A better strategy has been to wait out these pullbacks, or even try to add shares to winners. Will the dip be bought this time?

Further aggravation of today's sell-off has got to be caused by options expiration. I think that many would prefer to wait for Monday to make some new bets.

I think that today I will just hang on to what I have, and let the weekend sort things out. The momentum that has driven the market to these levels will not stop on a dime.

I should add that our network has been having problems today, and my network guru is out sick. Every time the network comes back up, my stocks are down another dime. I think I'm going to get out of the office and go find a cigarette.

9 comments:

Danny said...

me and my friends call cigarettes "diddies" because in high school the code for smoking was "p. diddy." Even the people I just met in college call em "diddies."

Just trying to keep you abreast on the slang. I've heard the occasional person I don't know say it, so they must know someone I know. If it spreads, now you'll know.

smoking is bad

Woodshedder said...

Thanks man, I feel 4 years younger!

mdawsz said...

The Fly uses technical analysis, he just doesn't know it. Douche!

Danny said...

dude fuckin crame just d-ed GIGM. weak

Danny said...

I suppose it could be time for a diddy.

IIO said...

A good goal is to develop a strategy thats not dependent on short term market swings. Because, really, what can you do about it? Nothing, I think. Market direction is out of our control. Sometimes we make a lucky guess, but its nice not to have to care.

Woodshedder said...

iio- definitely, that type of strategy is the goal. However, I sometimes feel that 100K is so little that why not liquidate? Often though, what seems like a good plan in hindsight probably wouldn't have worked in real time, due to numerous factors.

Honestly though, I'm definitely not above liquidating everything. However, the market has been so strong over the past months, I was caught somewhat off guard. Again, hindsight.

It is always tempting to try and sell high and buy back cheaper, although my portfolio has been doing better since I quit trying to time every swing.

I haven't been to your site recently. I bet you're up some insane amount ~30%? I'll have to visit.

IIO said...

Too bad we don't have the same perspective with foresight as with hindsight. Sure would make things easier. I read this book called "An American Hedgefund" by Timothy Sykes. He had returns of like 960% and 500% two years in a row, and he only owned 1 or 2 stocks at a time. Maybe its not so much what trading style is best, but what trading style best fits your personality and circumstances.

TraderCaddy said...

Its probably a requirement that one must smoke if you live in Richmond. Is that giant Marlboro cig. still there in front of the headquarters off I-95? It was always a sign to me that I was close to the end of my trip from Florida when I visited my daughter in Charlottesville at U. Va.