Wednesday, October 17, 2007

Forget Everything I Ever Wrote About MVIS

Especially, forget this post I made the other day. I was stupid to apply technical analysis to a stock which has shown ZERO buying interest. What good is an indicator when the stock moves only one direction?

I'm assuming that the company's news blackout is either because they have no news, or because Alex Tokman is uber confident and knows he is sitting on the most disruptive technology of the decade. Either way, I don't like it.

Who does Tokman think was pushing this stock up over $5.29 so the warrants could be called? There certainly was not a lack of PRs during that period. I checked the institutional interest regularly during the first 2 quarters of 2007 via Nasdaq.com and what I saw told me that the stock was being propped up by the small trader. Institutional interest never soared. So where is the little guy now? I tell you where he is: Right here, watching 25% of his capital rot and disintegrate.

I keep hearing about Tokman being a miracle worker. Well he certainly has turned the company around. However, there seems to be some chinks in the armor, specifically with the other announcements which were supposed to come by the end of Summer, and the release of the ROV. My understanding was that the ROV was to be released already. Maybe I am wrong about that. Still, what happened to the other announcements? One would not be concerned if the stock was trading like there was even one iota of institutional interest.

Wouldn't it have been nice if Tokman would have said during the MOT announcement to sell, as there will not be any news anytime soon? It sure seems like that fact was communicated to some, as the selling has not abated since that day.

So what's a person to do? Luckily I have this blog to rant on. Also, I stopped by Ben's blog and ranted there (sorry Ben- you've got a great blog) in hopes that my sentiments go somewhere. But what do I know? Nothing. I certainly do not know how to run Microvision. All I can do is trust that Tokman is not running a bait and switch, and hope that his uber confidence will one day translate into profits for me and other investors.

39 comments:

Anonymous said...

Woodie,

This seems somewhat of a change in sentiment regarding MVIS

Without going into excruciating detail, they are also manipulating the books [aggressive accounting] as evidenced from their last Q's statements.

jog on
grant

Bruce said...

anonymouse .. why'd you pull your blog?

Broker A said...

Great stuff Grant:

In a sick way, I miss your insane rants of "aggressive accounting" and "jogging on."

Good post Woody.

Woodshedder said...

No change in sentiment. I'm still long with no desire to sell. I'm just pissed that I've watched a 60% gain dwindle slowly to less than 20%. As I stated in the post, what do I know? Nothing. Likely there will be something coming that will make everything make sense, and I will just be the idiot blogger who should have known that AT had everything under control.

ducati998 said...

bruce,

It's summer time [almost] in NZ and my broken leg [motorcycle accident] is healed, thus, rather than being stuck indoors after the market closes, I'm out....

Fly,

I noticed that my absence was noted, I am touched that I am so missed.

MVIS losses are far higher than they are admitting to.

*No Institutional interest [that could change]
*No management holding [bad]

jog on
grant

Woodshedder said...

Grant, you let a little thing like a broken leg cause you to shut down your blog? And we all thought it was because you blew up.

Glad you are healed up.

Broker A said...

Duc:

Perhaps if you were in a car, you wouldn't have a broken leg.

Odd no?

In other newz, how's my HANS, huh?

Wood:

Change the fucking template or remove some of the shit on this site. Literally, I can't read it. Half the page is dark brown.

Broker A said...

That's not the real Grant.

Grant used to capitalize his G.

I notice these things.

Viz.

Woodshedder said...

Fly, you must be using Firefox. The page looks great in IE. There is a problem in Firefox that I have yet to be able to resolve. It started a few days ago.

However, I am going to change the template. I'm currently discussing designs with several different html nerds.

IIO said...

I also don't know anything regarding MVIS. I sold mine along time ago, but still like the story. If I were to guess, I'd guess that the stock will try to force alot of the bag holders out before moving up.

ducati998 said...

Fly,

I haven't looked at HANS for a while.

Incidentally, I never capitalized the "g" thus your observation is [and was] simply incorrect.

With regards to the car, it was on the racetrack, so immaterial, had I stacked a car on the racetrack, who knows........

jog on
grant

Danny said...

welcome back galadriel.

Broker A said...

Hmm.

That must be the real Grant.

Incidentally, when Grant fell off his motorcycle, by accident, he pressed the "destroy my fucking blog like a psycho" button.

Normally, when carrying my lap top, i tend to remove that button, for fear of hitting it-- in the event i get hit by a motorcycle.

Viz.

ducati998 said...

Fly,

Obviously sleep deprivation is affecting your comprehension.

I blogged BECAUSE I had a broken leg, I closed the blog, as my leg has healed, thus, rather than sitting in blogging, I've returned to other activities.

jog on
grant

Woodshedder said...

Grant, while blogging, you mentioned working out, powerlifting, etc., and even posted two pictures of yourself. One picture of you and a mate flipping Fly off, and another of you doing leg presses. Amazing you were able to keep up all that with a broken leg.

Also, it was a shame you shut it down when you did, as members of your own fold were giving you a heck of a time about some faulty accounting on your part. I would have like to have seen how that was played out.

mdawsz said...

Grant,

Fuck you.

mdawsz

Woodshedder said...

Ahhh the good ole days!!!

And to think M that Grant was going to challenge you to a cage match with_a_broken_leg.

ducati998 said...

Woodie,

True, but does that actually have to correlate to when the photo's were taken?

I always have disagreements with everyone regarding company financial statement analysis. Nothing new there.

jog on
grant

ducati998 said...

Woodie,

Incorrect, Mdawsz did the challenging, and then bottled out.

All mouth & no bollocks.

jog on
grant

Woodshedder said...

True about the pictures.

Unfortunately for me, your challenger about the financial statements was making a pretty sound case right before your blog blew up.

Mdawsz, I can't believe you'd choose a man with a broken leg to challenge to a mud wrasling match.

mdawsz said...

Dude you're such a phony! Admit it, you blew the fuck up and lacked the bottle to work your way out.

Furthermore, I recall you asking for my address so we could schedule some rasslin', not the other way around like you state.

Crawl back into your little hole.

ducati998 said...

Woodie,

Yes he was, I was in error in regards to the dates of the Options, however, the pricing of the Management Options was very aggressive and designed to enhance management returns, which was poor.

With regards to the capitalization of costs, there was [to my mind] clear evidence of such. Needless to say, he didn't agree.

MDAWSZ,

How could I blow up? According to your thesis I have never placed a trade in my life.

You can't have it both ways can you?

As to the "Challenge" the evidence still resides within Danny's blog, quite easily referenced, and will show you to be incorrect......as usual........some things just never change

jog on
grant

mdawsz said...

Bollocks!

ducati998 said...

Mdawsz,

Of course, this part of your anatomy went missing a long time ago did it not?

jog on
grant

mdawsz said...

Dude, this is not the first time you have solicited information about my manhood. I know it's lonely there on the island but lets try to keep things professional, viz?

Broker A said...

bollocks.

Fucking faggots.

mdawsz said...

Broker A, you're as queer as the trading desk over at SAC. Fuckin fishnet wearing homo.

Broker A said...

Let's get back to the subject at hand.

How could Ducati have had a broken leg, yet challenge Mdawz to a fucking wrestling contest?

Not very consistent.

I question his (Grant's) manhood.

mdawsz said...

Aren't you following along? Ducati is the most inconsistent and misinformed blogger in the history of the Interweb. Remember the time he wanted to short FXI at 115, that was only over 100 points ago, not too shabby there Grant.

Oh yeah, lets not forget that his blog was deleted on the same day the bulls routed the shorts after the Fed lowered 50 basis points, c'mon, do you expect us to believe that you didn't delete your blog in some fit of rage following a decimation of your trading capital (equal to 3 donkeys and 7 chickens).

Trading Goddess said...

How much is 3 donkeys and 7 chickens in Canadian? Is PETA aware that animals are being used in the stock market? Lastly, what came first - the chicken or the donkey?

Sierra Water said...

I'm back at normal address.

ducati998 said...

Woodie,
YoY MVIS;
Receivables..........+54%
Inventories..........+15%
Revenues.............+39%
Costs................[-38%]

No wonder Tokman & Co don't want to purchase MVIS stock.

Remove the "Interest" income, and MVIS increases it's operating losses by almost 50%

What exactly is this company up to?

Sierra Water said...

Wood,
Too bad we sold PTT.

Woodshedder said...

Yes Sierra, I've still got it on my main quote screen, and have been kicking myself daily. I had 1500 shares at 8.20 avg.

Broker A said...

Grant:

All r&D.

They are like a biotech company,waiting for FDA approval. They should have product out the door, by x-mas of 2008.

ducati998 said...

Fly,

The problem that bodes ill for the future is this; MVIS have existing product lines, that they cannot even get close to breakeven, never mind generate a profit.

Based on that demonstrated incompetance, what drives your optimism that they will be any better with this long awaited "wonder product"?

A Biotech at least has the excuse that the FDA has very specific guidelines and timeframes.

None exist for MVIS. How long have they actually been developing this product?

jog on
grant

Broker A said...

Hey, it works.

Now go clean your garage.

mdawsz said...

Grant, we've all been over this a million times. Get a new schtick.

Broker A said...

Grant is a one legged cock boxer.