Wild, Wild Day

BWLD hurt me today. What more can I say? I will sell my remaining shares when it catches a bounce.

The RSI(2)<2 filter identified IMA last night. The stock closed up 8+% today. I ran the filter again tonight, but out of 16 stocks, the only one that I would buy is RGR. I may pick up some shares in the morning.

I sold out of my CATS today when it did not rally after the Fed announcement. I took a small gain from the trade. You may recall that was my second RSI(2)<2 trade.

Speaking of the Fed, on the dip after the announcement, I bought 100 QLD @ 118.81 and then sold it for 121.11. While the trade was excellent, it did little to ameliorate the pain caused by BWLD missing.

I really want to go into tomorrow with a few breakout plays, but right now, after a long evening of trick-or-treating, I don't know if I'm going to run any screens or not. If I do, and I find some promising charts, I'll post the names here later this evening.

Bashers Mean Business

It is very interesting to me that at least one, and possibly several, anonymous "leavers of comments" have arrived on board here and have begun their somewhat muted assault. Their arrival means the blog is getting more popular, as I never really see bad or unpopular blogs with bashers. But don't get me wrong. I've bashed other bloggers too, although my style is not one of outright rudeness and hostility. My style typically consists of a subtle layer of sarcasm sprinkled with a dash of humility, followed with a strong finish of incontrovertible truth. That's a recipe for good bashing. Unfortunately, most bashing lacks the eloquence, efficiency, and poetic twist of word and phrase necessary to be at all entertaining.

Put Money Where My Mouth Is

I picked up 100 WCG @ $26.65 for a trade. I'm trying out the RSI(2) indicator. However, due to the nasty investigation, I'm using a tight stop.

I'm out of the office for most of the day.

Evening Update

For some reason, it felt silly to do a new post just to update what the rest of my day was like.

BWLD gapped up this morning on weak volume so I sold 1/3rd of my position above $40.00 Had I sold all of it, I'd be around 1 grand richer right now, as the stock is trading 6 points lower after a .2 miss.

After looking at a chart of CATS (thanks Andy from the comments section) and watching the stock trade for 20 minutes or so, I decided to try out another RSI(2) trade. I bought 200 @ $6.06. I set a stop at $5.93, which was just below the low established the previous day. Then I left the office.

When I returned to the office about 15 minutes before the close, I saw that I was stopped out on WCG, for a $200.00 loss. CATS, on the other hand was up 6+%. Obviously, as some here have wanted to point out, the fundamental situation concerning WCG overrode any possible technicals. I liked the CATS bounce, so I left the position on overnight.

I also saw VDSI up 10+%, so I sold the shares I bought near the bottom, and left 2/3rds for later. It felt really good to have my patience rewarded here as I've felt like a fool for trying to catch this falling knife.

CPHD was also up 10+%, so I took 1/3 off before the earnings report tomorrow.

This leaves me with about 35% cash. I'd like to put some of that cash into more Gold and Silver.

As learning how to buy weakness has been a goal of mine all year, I am glad to see some of these buy-low trades start to turn a profit. I am especially excited about developing a screen to use with the RSI(2) setting.

New Research On RSI(2): A Profitable Indicator?

As many traders know, many indicators are often representations of similar measures. I prefer to not get bogged down with multiple measures of a trend. To keep things simple, I typically monitor price and volume, MACD, RSI, and sometimes the Stochastics. While the MACD can help traders judge the strength of a trend and also identify when a new trend is beginning, the RSI is often used to help with timing, i.e., when to get in, and when to get out of a trade.

Because of its simplicity, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is one indicator that has always made intuitive sense to me. The calculation is simply the average of x days up closes / x days down closes. What traders have often differed on is what average to use. The default with most charting software is 14 days. However, several bloggers have advocated, or at least discussed using a 2 day average. I know Bill Rempel, Bullish Jim, and Marlyn from Filtering Wall Street (no longer being updated) have all presented trades using the 2 day RSI.

Finally I have come upon some research which shows the benefit of using a 2 day RSI average. In the November issue of Technical Analysis of Stocks and Commodities, an article by Larry Connors and Ashton Dorkins describes the results of testing more than eight million trades from January 1, 1995, to December 31, 2006. The average one week percentage gain or loss for all stocks during the period tested was +0.25%.

After quantifying overbought and oversold conditions (RSI above 98 is overbought; RSI below 2 is oversold), their research showed that stocks with a 2 period RSI below 2 averaged a gain of +0.88% one week later (beating the benchmark average by more than 3:1). Conversely, stocks that were overbought with a 2 day RSI greater than 98 lost money (-0.17%) one week later as well as underperforming the benchmark.

The implications of this research are crystal clear: Traders should use a 2 period RSI if they want the indicator to actually give them an edge.

After reading this article, I set out to find a stock with a 2 day RSI below 2. I could have just programmed Stockfetcher (I think) to find some. However, that would have been too easy. I instead decided to pull up some stocks that have recently taken a beating. After the plunge VDSI experienced, I was certain it would make a good RSI<2 candidate. No luck there, as the RSI(2) was at 9.5.

Then I remembered WCG. Bingo! The RSI(2) is at 1.14.

The chart, which shows WCG losing 70% of its value in three trading days, shows why the RSI(2) works so well. When a stock is trading at extremely oversold levels, the most likely direction for it to go is up. While WCG would definitely be a buy if one was trading using the RSI(2), the fact that the stock is under a government investigation for alleged Medicare and Medicaid fraud right before the start of the enrollment period may mean that the normal bouncing process may not follow through in this particular name.

I intend to incorporate the RSI(2) in all future technical analysis.

2006. Connors, L. and Ashton Dorkins. "Does the RSI give you an edge?" Technical Analysis of Stocks and Commodities. 48-52, November, 2007.

Nasdaq Breaks Above Recent Range

Read about it here at Trading Goddess's blog.

Nasdaq Breaks Above Recent Range.

In other news, I took a body blow on BLUD today, and then had VDSI pour more salt in some wounds. I plan to post a recap of recent events, as well as some thoughts I'm having about trading, on Sunday.

Buying VDSI Panic

Picked up 200 shares @ 29.63 average.

More updates later.

***Update*** OWWWW. That really hurt. Nothing like losing 700 bucks on VDSI when I was just hoping for some quick profits on a bounce. VDSI, meet everyone in my "core" portfolio. All my long-term holdings (MVIS), meet VDSI.

I initially only bought 100 shares, being wary of the picking the bottom, but when the stock started screaming upward, I bought another 100 shares...Oh well. I think there is a high probability that I will get out of this break even, within a week's time.

In other news, yesterday I added to my BLUD and BWLD positions. I also started positions in CPHD and IIG, and I added to IIG today on the news.

I'm hearing that MSFT posted good numbers this evening, and the stock is trading up over $2.50 in after hours. The QQQs are up in after hours, erasing all of today's losses. As long as BIDU does not disappoint, it looks like more of the same tug-o-war between bulls and bears for Friday.

X Marks The Spot

The Nasdaq put forward a very strong move today. Volume accompanied the move, the first time in several months that the index has seen good volume on a move up.

In my previous post here at Trading Goddess's, I suggested an area which the Nasdaq might find support. The index did not yet make it down to those levels. This shows a great deal of strength, though it is certainly possible the Nasdaq may dip from here and visit the 2600-2650 area.

In the chart above, the bottom line represents the uptrend established from the August low. This uptrend was firmly punched through on Friday, October 19th. The upper line is the resistance set from the October high.

This analysis shows the index at a critical moment. The Nasdaq managed to close just slightly above resistance (or right at it, depending on where you draw your line), and closed just below, (or right on) the uptrend line.

A strong showing over the next few days should put the Nasdaq above both lines, and will mean the recent pullback was just another buying opportunity. Failure to overcome the resistance line suggests further retracement is likely.

Basically, if you are short, this is where you stick it to the bulls. If you are long, this is where you ram it to the bears.

The next few days should be very entertaining as both camps fight for dominance.

Microvision Enters Development Agreement with Asian Consumer Electronics Manufacturer

Microvision Enters Development Agreement with Asian Consumer Electronics Manufacturer to Create Accessory Pico Projector for Mobile Phones and Other Devices.

I hope those options I bought yesterday go through the roof!

Going To Cash

I've liquidated most of my speculative positions, ALLI and EHTH.

I also sold half of my AAPL.

Sold all my GME on the nice bounce this morning.

Long story short, I've gotten punished, especially in positions like BLUD, where I've watched nice gains erode into losses. I will typically never allow a gain to erode to a loss, but in my endeavor to use more patience and give positions longer to run, I've succumbed. And that is the difficulty in trading. Its as if Mother Market new I was going to hold onto things longer...

The stockalicious widget is up-to-date and lists what I'm still holding. If you care to click on it, it will also give you the prices I got for my sells.

I'm now 45% in cash.

***Update*** I bought back ALLI 1 penny cheaper than I sold. I'm going to try and grab some cash back on a bounce.

***Update*** Took another loss on the ALLI. Dammit!

Bought 10 MVIS December 5s.

Where Might The Nasdaq Find Support?

Read my latest post over at Trading Goddess's place.

Where Might the Nasdaq Find Support?

*DJ Microvision Started At Buy By Maxim Group >MVIS

That is all for now. I'm blogging remotely as my car is in the shop.

***Update***

What a terrible day. The icing is clearly the latest SEC filing for MVIS. For now, I'm going to bed.

Forget Everything I Ever Wrote About MVIS

Especially, forget this post I made the other day. I was stupid to apply technical analysis to a stock which has shown ZERO buying interest. What good is an indicator when the stock moves only one direction?

I'm assuming that the company's news blackout is either because they have no news, or because Alex Tokman is uber confident and knows he is sitting on the most disruptive technology of the decade. Either way, I don't like it.

Who does Tokman think was pushing this stock up over $5.29 so the warrants could be called? There certainly was not a lack of PRs during that period. I checked the institutional interest regularly during the first 2 quarters of 2007 via Nasdaq.com and what I saw told me that the stock was being propped up by the small trader. Institutional interest never soared. So where is the little guy now? I tell you where he is: Right here, watching 25% of his capital rot and disintegrate.

I keep hearing about Tokman being a miracle worker. Well he certainly has turned the company around. However, there seems to be some chinks in the armor, specifically with the other announcements which were supposed to come by the end of Summer, and the release of the ROV. My understanding was that the ROV was to be released already. Maybe I am wrong about that. Still, what happened to the other announcements? One would not be concerned if the stock was trading like there was even one iota of institutional interest.

Wouldn't it have been nice if Tokman would have said during the MOT announcement to sell, as there will not be any news anytime soon? It sure seems like that fact was communicated to some, as the selling has not abated since that day.

So what's a person to do? Luckily I have this blog to rant on. Also, I stopped by Ben's blog and ranted there (sorry Ben- you've got a great blog) in hopes that my sentiments go somewhere. But what do I know? Nothing. I certainly do not know how to run Microvision. All I can do is trust that Tokman is not running a bait and switch, and hope that his uber confidence will one day translate into profits for me and other investors.

Running Off TRAK

TRAK gapped down 10 bucks this morning. The stock climbed up about 5 points, where I sold the other half of my position. Which reminds me, I don't care what anyone says, when a stock runs up 20+% in a matter of weeks, you have to take some off the table. I'm glad I sold half of my TRAK last week, or I would have been really really mad this morning. As it stands, instead of averaging 20% on the trade, I probably netted around 15%. Still not bad. Read my first post on TRAK here.

Also, I sold XFML today. I still have the distinct feeling that it will bounce tomorrow.

My 20-Day Play, DAR, broke out today, so I bought 500 shares.

Most everything else I own is either consolidating or has pulled back a bit. Tomorrow may be the bounce day, after the INTC, YHOO, and IBM reports.

MVIS Printing Multiple Bullish Divergences

Today MVIS had a swell in volume to levels not seen since August. The stock dropped and retested its August lows. While this breakdown from tight Bollinger Bands could cause one to be concerned, the chart is showing many bullish divergences.

While the stock has continued to make lower lows since the end of August, the MACD, RS, and Stochastics have all bottomed and have turned up. As buyers stepped in today and picked the stock up from its lows, its probable that a trend change is near.

Also, it was within a few days of today's date in October of 2006 that MVIS began its run which saw it rise 125% by the January CES show.

Technical Difficulties and an Update

It has come to my attention that my blog is not displaying correctly with Firefox browser. In fact, I downloaded Firefox and checked it out, and the blog looks like hell. I'm not sure why it is not displaying properly in Firefox, but I have an email in to Blogger support, and am doing some research on the net. For now, you'll have to use Explorer.

I'm tired, so I'm going to make this fairly uninteresting. Last week, I picked up some SLW. It has been doing well for me. Also, based on Fly's pumping of the stock, I joined the Chinese lottery with a 300 share position in XFML.

It seems to me the Nasdaq is likely to break through the trendline I referenced in this post. While I'm not expecting anything other than a pullback, it makes sense for me to lighten up a bit and sell some stocks that I either was not feeling good about or were showing signs of rolling over. To that end, I sold my small position in KTEC, and I sold out of LWAY. Both gave me very small losses. KTEC I sold because the biggest volume has come on the down days, and LWAY looks like it might want to consolidate a bit before moving up again.

I bought 50 shares of SLB today at $111.43. Of course I owned this stock and sold out last week right before the move. Anyway, with oil prices rising and IBD pumping it, SLB should continue to do well. I did not have any exposure to the black gold, so it seems a logical buy.

I also bought 100 shares of EHTH as this morning it seemed to be bucking the trend. Well it quit bucking that trend as soon as I bought it, but I held on anyway as the stock still looks strong. This afternoon I added 50 shares of ADY, as it also looks poised to continue up.



ALLI made my screen Sunday evening. I watched it all day, and it started to break out this afternoon. I bought an initial 500 shares, and then the move looked so perfect, I bought another 500 shares. I have big hopes for this one.

As always, all of my individual buys and sells are posted with prices on my Stockalicious widget.

Last week, I did an interview for WallSt. Radio's Financial Blog Watch. It should air Wednesday, October 17th. I am excited about this as it places my blog among some serious blogger company.

20-Day Play: EHTH

In order for a stock to make The 20-Day Play, it must trade above its 20-day simple moving average for at least 20 days, and then bounce on or near the 20-day average.



EHTH saw its IPO just one year ago. After finishing a cup-shaped pattern, the stock has pulled back to its 20 DSMA. This touchdown is also a revisit of a pivot point.

Last week's 20-Day Play, DAR, is still in play.

Weekend Humor: Crossdressing and Fishnets at SAC?

Read about the trader at SAC who was forced to take Estrogen pills by his bosses.

Bob, Bears, Bulls, and Buys

Come writers and critics
Who prophesize with your pen
And keep your eyes wide
The chance won't come again
And don't speak too soon
For the wheel's still in spin
And there's no tellin' who
That it's namin'.
For the loser now
Will be later to win
For the times they are a-changin'.
Bob Dylan

With the bears now growling about the onset of Armageddon, I felt Bob's timeless lyrics were appropriate. Take a look at Tim Knight's post Sweet Relief if you care to read about the dark side.

My day started with me putting a market order in to sell my QID at the open, as I saw the futures were up, and I was going to be out of the office and away from a computer until the afternoon. Bad timing on that one. After my meeting, I met my wife at her office, pulled up a quote screen, and did a little dance as I was up another 1.5% or so. I decided to celebrate my unrealized gains by taking her out for a nice lunch. Again, bad timing.

By the time I got home, AAPL was in an all-out free fall. Rather ran reacting instantly and buying the panic dip, I went searching for news. Of course, there really was not any. I spent probably thirty minutes just watching things and looking for an explanation for the selloff. Now don't get me wrong, I knew things were extended and due for a pullback. It just looked a little more violent than usual.

Anyway, I did use the weakness to sell off some losers. I sold the rest of my PTT at $7.94, which means I was able to get rid of most my shares for a smallish loss. I also sold 500 AKRX @ $7.50 for an even smaller loss.

In the past, I have participated in panic selling. Today I remained fairly calm and objective. This is a big improvement for me. Now that doesn't mean I did everything correctly. I did sell 200 LLNW @ $11.02, which was not a good move, especially since they raised guidance after hours. I also sold my AAPL @ $160.80, when it looked like it was going to continue down into the close. I still got a nice gain on the sale. However, I bought back 2/3rds of the position for a tiny bit higher than I sold when it showed strength going into the close.

Another move that I am proud of, even if it turns out in the future to be wrong, is that I bought this dip. I added shares to my BLUD and BWLD positions. This is crucial for me because it is damn near impossible to buy low and sell high if I can't buy during panic. I did today.

As for the Nasdaq, I view today's move as a much needed pullback.



The chart shows support on the 10 day simple moving average. The strength of this rally can be measured by the fact that this is the first touch down on the 10DSMA since September 18th. The blue line I drew shows the lower trend line established from the August low.

The volume today absolutely shows distribution, and the Stochastics and RSI are overbought. However, there have likely been a lot of traders waiting for a pullback to get in on this rally. In fact, our very own Ragin' Cajun has been waiting with 50% cash. In short, I am still bullish here, but will be watching the moving averages and trend lines very carefully. If the Nasdaq looks like it wants to trade below the blue trend line, I will likely continue taking profits (assuming I still have some at that point) and will liquidate speculative plays.

Wood Buy: KTEC

Yesterday I established a small position in KTEC after Fly mentioned it. He even offered up this research report from Needham.



The stock broke out to a new 52 week high today, although the volume was weak. In fact, volume has been weak during the wedge created in September and October. Due to the weak volume and wedging action, I've only committed 100 shares to this stock.

The Bollinger Bands (not shown) are tighter than they have been in 6 months. As you know, tight bands mean a greater likelihood of increased volatility. Should volume move in, I think there is the possibility of a large upside move.

Raised Some Cash

Today I sold half my SLB and GLD, making a small profit in both. While I think SLB is a great company, the chart is suggesting that there might be some consolidation ahead until the company reports earnings in a couple of weeks. GLD also looks toppy here, and barring any economic shocks, looks like it might retrace a bit before moving up again. Long story short: neither looked as if they were going to go anywhere big anytime soon. With so many stocks making double-digit percentage gains, I felt it was best to move some money elsewhere.

PTT, the gentleman's club play, has been causing me some grief. It was my second largest position, after MVIS. The stock has been very fickle of late, and has several times approached my maximum pain level before bouncing. Today I got tired of flirting with a large loss, so I sold 500 shares, or 1/3 of the position, for a small loss. I now feel better about holding the rest a bit longer.

Over lunch today, I was reading Sierra Mountain Investor's blog, and noticed he was buying LLNW. I looked at the chart, and it looked like a decent bottom feeder play. Also, Fly has been buying it. Well the stock went berzerk around 1:30. The momentum was unmistakable, so I bought 300 shares on the first pullback. I really wish I would have bought 1000. Anyway, LLNW was a pleasant surprise today.

Finally, I'm frontrunning Fly with my 100 share purchase of KTEC.

It is important to note that I own more stocks right now that I ever have. I used to scoff at diversification. However, I'm liking owning a nice group of solid stocks, mainly due to the fact that any given morning I may get caught up in a meeting, and not be able to log in to the account. Now, one stock tanking won't take my portfolio down 5%.

20-Day Play: DAR

The 20-Day Play seeks to capture a stock that has consolidated momentum and is ready for another leg up. Specifically, the stock will have traded above the 20-day simple moving average for at least 20 days and will be set up to bounce from the average.



DAR certainly meets the basic screen necessary for the 20 Day Play. However, the RSI and MACD are both showing signs of possible weakness ahead. Be careful as more consolidation maybe required before DAR can continue moving up.

Also present is the almost symmetrical reverse head and shoulders pattern.

Overall, I find this stock worth watching to determine if the 20 day average will begin to offer support as it did in March, April, May, and June.

New Position: AKRX

This position was initiated purely for technical reasons.

The stock was pointed out to me in the comments section by Brent, of Sierra Mountain Investor fame. I'd hyperlink to his blog, except that he has it offline right now. I have to say Brent has some fantastic picks, and we'd all be doing better if he'd put his blog back up.





As you can see, AKRX has been consolidating near resistance, and depending on where you drawn your lines, has either pierced resistance, or is bumping its head on it.

The blue arrows show the high volume days over the last 6 months. If the stock were to see another high volume day as it did in the past, it might be launched upward, making a clean breakout. And that is what I'm looking for this one to do, breakout.

Fundamentally, this stock is a biotech, and because of that, can be prone to surprises which may be deleterious to one's account value.

Update: Sierra has his blog back up.

New Post At The Goddess's House

I made a late night visit over to Trading Goddess's place. You can go here to see what transpired.

Warning: the post is about economics and jobs reports. However, there is a graph included, to keep you chart-chompers interested.

Position Update: PTT

I've added a suggested trading range to the chart. It looks to me as if PTT has completed a pullback to support. While the pullback swung my account to a loss of $500.00 in the position, I stayed with it. I do not typically let trades turn into losses much greater than $500.00, so it was do or die. Indeed, PTT bounced, albeit from about .35 cents lower than I had hoped it would find support.

As long as the indexes do not begin a new leg down, and PTT continues to move back up, I am looking to see $10.00 before another pullback.

Out With Kefir; In With Apple

Last night's reporting of sales from LWAY caught me off guard. I did not realize they were reporting. Anyway, I resisted the urge to sell in after hours (their revenues missed analyst's targets). This morning there was a weak bid, so I hit it first thing, as soon as the premarket opened, selling the final half of my shares .5 cents less than the stock closed the day before. The stock tanked first thing, but has recovered nicely. I may get back into the position at some point.

BLUD also reported last night, and I held through the report. I was rewarded for that today as it up 9%. If it holds these levels, it will have completed a clean breakout, on volume. It is interesting to note that it broke out 2 weeks ago, and then revisted the pivot point. I think that action makes for an even stronger breakout.

Today AAPL dropped about 4 points in just a few minutes, so I scooped up 25 shares right at the current LOD. I've been wanting to add to that position.

PTT is also up 4% today. I bought the pullback, and was punished a bit for it, but it looks like the uptrend is resuming. My buy on the pullback is now back in the green.

I should note that I'm home with a sick 1 year old, and that has allowed me greater access to trading than I would normally have at work.

ADP Employment Report

The report was released today at 8:15 a.m. This indicator is better than any other indicator in effectively predicting the BLS's own monthly estimates on private, non-farm hiring. In other words, if you want a heads-up on what Friday's labor data may be, take a close look at the ADP report.

You can read the ADP Employment Report here.

If you are into chart-chomping, the report provides some nifty charts for your consideration.

I Love the 20 Day Simple Moving Average

The 20 day average is a favorite of mine. As the center line for the Bollinger Band (or the average of 2 STD of volatility), the average can alert traders when a stock has reached a normal price range, relative to recent movement. This positioning of price in the not too hot, not too cold, but just right range seems to propel stocks that have momentum.

A recent example is LWAY. This stock has been a phenomenal earnings and momentum play. The gigantic breakouts on killer volume should have been enough to earn this stock a place on any breakout trader's watch list.

I missed the first move to 17, but resolved myself to keep watching the stock for a pullback, as stocks that breakout on huge volume tend to keep going up for a while.

I made the first purchase on September 19th, as the price was approaching the 20 day simple moving average. I was immediately rewarded with a huge move. The stock spent the next week or so consolidating the move, and I again waited for the price to approach the 20 day average. On Friday, I added to my position as LWAY look primed to move again.

I was rewarded Monday with a huge move. Today, I sold half my position for a ~30% gain.

I have extended a hypothetical 20 day moving average on the chart so that one might imagine what LWAY will do next.

Hmmmm. Nasdaq Makes 52 Week High. What To Do?

I'm not sure I know what to do right now except for hang on. I've been waiting for a dip to buy more. The dip has never really happened, just some sideways consolidation. I'm really glad that a couple of weeks ago I put most of my cash to work, save ~10%. I would be kicking myself right now if I had not. If MVIS would decide to make a move, my account would be near a YTD high.

Many times today I was tempted to sell parts of my positions, especially the ones that I'm up over 10%. I ended up not selling anything, mainly because I often sell too early. If the market wants to run through the year-end, I'm fairly certain my stocks that have just broken out will run with it. That being said, the damn indexes will have to pullback at some point, so I'm going to have to sell something in order to buy when that happens.

I did buy 500 more PTT right near the LOD. I think the pullback is likely about over. I gauge when its time to buy a pullback based on my fear from my existing position. Because today I started to worry about my existing PTT position, it must mean its time to buy more. We'll know soon.

I also covered my GES position, taking a small loss. When the market is screaming, I don't want to get caught with my pants down (not Guess brand) if GES is a boat that gets lifted with the tide.