Wednesday, June 6, 2007

Knocking Off Early Today

I'm leaving the office in a few minutes and heading home. I've got a sick baby and some painting to finish.

As for today's action, I don't think things are as bad as they seem. Most everything I'm watching is trading way below average volume levels. I have every confidence that the dip buyer is going to step in at some point and stabilize things. The Nasdaq is still a good ~20 points above support at the 20 day average. Therefore, it would be healthy and normal to see the 2570 area.

***Update*** Lets play "catch a falling knife!"
Long 1000 QQQQ @ $47.06- This will be liquidated before the close.

3:23 ***Update*** I caught the knife, selling 1000 QQQQ @ $47.24

11 comments:

grant said...

wood-
I can see the *technical* reasoning for this trade, however, there's not much above $47.31 at least for today...unless you have a much higher target

jog on
grant

Woodshedder said...

Target- 47.26
I'm just home, messing around, sacrificing 100 bucks to make 200.

grant said...

wood-

Fair enough, but I've proven to myself that technical daytrading/swingtrading is not for me...the returns are just too low, while the risk is stomach churning, hell I didn't even have cash on the line!

jog on
grant

Woodshedder said...

Grant, you get used to it, I guess. Most of the times I take these daytrades, my palms don't even sweat anymore. At least not when I'm at home. Work is a different story.

You can make bank daytrading if you have an efficient system for screening for stocks making a move, as well as a disciplined approach to entries and exits. I'm not very good at it because I do not possess the above.

Hey, the same thing applies to long-term trading as well! Whaddayaknow.

grant said...

wood-

Actually I think there's more to it and I'll post my thoughts later.

Certainly the returns bar *MISSTRADE* are woeful for the most part.

jog on
grant

MillionDollarJourney.com said...

NASDAQ seems to be making a bearish price/MACD divergence, along with the VIX indicator moving up. What are your thoughts on this?

Woodshedder said...

Haven't looked specifically at those indicators today. I'll check and get back to you.

Woodshedder said...

The VIX has broken out above a tight range.

The Nasdaq's MACD barely got above the Zero line on the recent high, and now has just crossed below the line.

I don't see anything earth shattering other than a market thats retracing a bit. Its been normal for the volatility to increase on the downside moves.

william said...

Woodshedder,

I'm wondering why they'd consistently bid up a stock like ARWR end of day. This has been happening for a few days now. Does it portend to a bigger move upwards coming soon?

Looking at the chart, with its strong support at around 7, I believe that this could be possible.

I'd appreciate your comments. Thanks.

Woodshedder said...

William, I will be happy to tackle that question; however, it may not be until late tonight before I can have some time to get back on the computer. Check back later.

Woodshedder said...

William, looking at a five day, and 15 minute period chart of ARWR, it is obvious that the stock rises in the afternoon, usually after 3 o'clock.

You ask, "why'd they" bid it up? I don't know who they is, but Fly maintains that they is Fidelity.

There could be any number of things happening here. It could be a coincidence. It could be fidelity buying in the afternoon. After all, dumb money buys in the morning; smart money buys the afternoon. Since Fly has a large fan base, it could be that his mention that ARWR gets bought in the afternoon has created a situation where everyone starts to buy just before the afternoon, in expecation of it rising, and then, by their very buying, they create a self fulfilling prophecy.

As for any move up- if it doesn't fall through 7, it can only go two directions: sideways or up. At the very least, another stab at recent highs wouldn't seem out of the ordinary.