Monday, September 10, 2007

Going Short

First, thanks for all of your comments re: Real-Life House Flipping Horrors. I really appreciated them.

I don't have a lot of time this evening, but I did want to note that I sold off all of my longs Friday and today (except for MVIS). I have not updated Stockalicious to reflect these changes. A side note: Stockalicious has moved and changed to a new and supposedly better format. More on this after I explore the changes.

On Friday I went short GES. That has so far turned out to be a great short. Today I bought the QID and SDS.

I feel extremely confident that the trend has been established, and it is down. Typically, when I feel strongly about anything, it is time to do the opposite of what I'm doing. For some reason, I'm certain that this time it is different.

Covered my GES short @ $45.17, netting $2.61. I will likely short it again higher.

Bought more QID @ $43.80, as at this level, the $COMP is busting its head on the 50 day average. I am betting it has trouble at this area.


Broker A said...

As you already know, the market will moon rocket higher now, never to see these low levels again.

And, GES will probably get bought out by RL.

Anonymous said...

Hedge Fund Manager Leon Copperman predicts double digit gains for the coming year.

But you must pick the companies that are growing to outpace the market

His reasoning:

1) the U.S. economy continuies to grow at 2-3 % after inflation
2) Inflation is moderate
3) Monetary policy is not punishing the market ( bull runs end with interest rate increases)
4) Valuations are reasonable P/E of the S&P Index are 15 times this years earnings AND
return on equity and profit margins are at near record levels
5) Corporate balance sheets are strong , corporate liquidity is excellent

He says bull markets do not end due to old age. the end is characterized by :
1) rampant speculation
2) price/earnings ratio expansion
3) tightening from a hostile Federal Reserve interest rate policy
4) rising inflation

Danny said...

it's worth noting that SD real estate is effected more by a downturn in shitty tract homes. I mean, in hindsight, it's inconceivable that even large lots built in luxury can command much of a premium when they are 50 identical places, and in a remote as-of-yet undeveloped area off the I15.

SDSU is located near a seedier part, and my friend bought a condo south of SDSU (closer to mexico = worse) and approximately 3.5 miles away, so zero "close to sdsu markup."

On the sixth floor of a random condo unit, his thing went from 250k when he bought at the peak, to 190K now. And why would that real estate deserve a premium , there is nothing at all special about it.

This is in stark contrast the the homes in LJ, and Mission Hills, Rancho Bernardo, Del Mar, Downtown and other affluent areas, that have declined little.

Is two quarters of negative gdp growth that likely? and why does that prevent companies with solid future revenue from under preforming. Of course being long the market means you track it to a degree, but none of us are index investing.

Sierra Water said...

Wood.. "Toured with Phish".. Get out of here!!!!! I'm not worthy!

Sierra Water said...

Danny, places like LJ and coastal OC is always last to go. I watched three of my dad's buddies on Spyglass go BK in the mid 90s. This will be worse. Just my two cents.

Sierra Water said...

^ are last to go. Sorry, I am retarded this time of night.

Woodshedder said...

Sierra- not as a musician. As a I should have specified that.

Everyone else- I still think the market goes lower. Sure there will be spikes and dips, but over the next couple of months, I see nothing to make it go higher.

I think a rate cut is already priced in.

mdawsz said...

I love La Jolla. If that place tanks I'm in. They have a seal beach.

Sierra Water said...

The equities market will turn down in a New York minute once people get wind of what they are in denial about. This market is on it last legs..

LJ will fall 20-30% from current levels. My parents have investment units in Wind N Sea so there is no ill motive here. Just is obvious to me.