Wednesday, March 21, 2007

BWLD- Nothing Makes Me Angrier Than A Downgrade (Unless I'm Short)


Look at that chart. It is a great study in what happens when a stock moves in gaps on significant volume. It is clear that although BWLD was approaching overbought levels, it was going much higher on strong momentum. I really get mad when an analyst downgrades a stock directly after it breaks out. I can imagine the weasle-eyed little analysts snickering while they plan to crush the breakout buyers. They assuage their impotence by timing their reports to create maximum pain.


The other part of it is one can never trust anyone on Wall Street. If the downgrade was truly due to valuation, then why not go to "Sell" rather than "Hold?". If the target is $57.00, do the analysts really expect their clients to hold a stock for the next 9 months while it does absolutely nothing? If the stock is fully valued, then sell it!


As always, nothing is truly what it seems.


As for my BWLD position I still feel good about it. The stock did close above $58.00 which was very positive, and the volume was fairly light for a downgrade event. I see more support around $56.00 My feeling is that the stock will work off the overbought condition fairly quickly and resume the uptrend. I am looking for a 6-8 point move for my target of $65.00-$67.00

2 comments:

ShortDaBull said...

cheers to a 2% day for you tomorrow!

Woodshedder said...

Sweet! I'll take all the help I can get!